唧唧堂：Econometrica 计量经济学2022年11月刊论文摘要13篇

1. 经济学的实证策略：照亮从因到果的道路

Empirical Strategies in Economics: Illuminating the Path from Cause to Effect

经济学的实证策略应该是透明和可信的，这一观点现在几乎不言而喻。局部平均处理效应（LATE）框架可通过揭示特定的工具变量（IV）估计对谁有效，来提供透明性和可信度。本讲座使用实证案例，主要涉及特许学校和考试学校的影响，以说明LATE框架对因果推断的价值。LATE将随机分配所满足的独立性条件与更具争议性的排除限制区分开来。用一个排除限制来解释为何入读芝加哥考试学校会降低学生成绩。会降低学生的成绩可以用一个排除限制解释。我还提出了两个更广泛的观点：IV排除限制正式承诺了对缩减形式的因果效应的清晰和一致的解释；应用计量经济学的可信度革命至少要归功于令人信服的经验分析和方法论的见解。

The view that empirical strategies in economics should be transparent and credible now goes almost without saying. By revealing for whom particular instrumental variables (IV) estimates are valid, the local average treatment effects (LATE) framework helped make this so. This lecture uses empirical examples, mostly involving effects of charter and exam school attendance, to illustrate the value of the LATE framework for causal inference. LATE distinguishes independence conditions satisfied by random assignment from more controversial exclusion restrictions. A surprising exclusion restriction is shown to explain why enrollment at Chicago exam schools reduces student achievement. I also make two broader points: IV exclusion restrictions formalize commitment to clear and consistent explanations of reduced-form causal effects; the credibility revolution in applied econometrics owes at least as much to compelling empirical analyses as to methodological insights.

参考文献：Angrist, J.D. (2022), Empirical Strategies in Economics: Illuminating the Path From Cause to Effect. Econometrica, 90: 2509-2539. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20640.

2. 计量经济学中的因果关系：选择与机会

Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance

本文描述了两种因果推断方法的演变和最近的趋同。第一种，在统计学中，从随机实验的分析和设计开始。第二种，在计量经济学中，侧重于经济主体做出最优选择的环境。本文认为，局部平均治疗效果框架通过使许多领域的学者对关键假设透明化和易懂化，促进了近期的趋同。展望未来，本文结合了同样的透明度和相关性，讨论了最近在因果推断方面的发展。

This essay describes the evolution and recent convergence of two methodological approaches to causal inference. The first one, in statistics, started with the analysis and design of randomized experiments. The second, in econometrics, focused on settings with economic agents making optimal choices. I argue that the local average treatment effects framework facilitated the recent convergence by making key assumptions transparent and intelligible to scholars in many fields. Looking ahead, I discuss recent developments in causal inference that combine the same transparency and relevance.

参考文献：Imbens, G.W. (2022), Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance. Econometrica, 90: 2541-2566. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21204.

3. 稳健经验贝叶斯置信区间

Robust Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals

我们在正态平均数问题上构建了稳健的经验贝叶斯置信区间（EBCIs）。该区间以通常的线性经验贝叶斯估计值为中心，但使用了一个考虑到收缩的临界值。假设均值为正态分布的参数化EBCIs（Morris（1983b）），在违反这一假设时，可能会严重降低置信区间的覆盖率。相比之下，我们的EBCIs控制了覆盖率，而当均值确实为高斯时，其长度与参数化EBCIs接近。如果平均数被视为固定的，我们的EBCI有一个平均覆盖率保证：在每个平均数的n个EBCI中，覆盖概率至少是1-α。我们的实证应用考虑了美国社区对代际流动的影响。

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that assume a normal distribution for the means (Morris (1983b)) may substantially undercover when this assumption is violated. In contrast, our EBCIs control coverage regardless of the means distribution, while remaining close in length to the parametric EBCIs when the means are indeed Gaussian. If the means are treated as fixed, our EBCIs have an average coverage guarantee: the coverage probability is at least 1 − α on average across the n EBCIs for each of the means. Our empirical application considers the effects of U.S. neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility.

参考文献：Armstrong, T.B., Kolesár, M. and Plagborg-Møller, M. (2022), Robust Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals. Econometrica, 90: 2567-2602. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18597.

4. 现金转移的一般均衡效应：肯尼亚的实验证据

General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya

大规模的经济刺激如何产生个人和总体反应是经济学的一个核心问题，但还没有进行过实验研究。我们向肯尼亚农村653个随机村庄的10500个贫困家庭提供了一次性的1000美元的现金转移。隐含的财政冲击超过了当地GDP的15%。我们发现对接受者的消费和资产有很大影响。重要的是，我们记录了对非受援家庭和公司的巨大正向溢出效应，以及极小的价格通货膨胀。我们估计当地的转移乘数为2.5。我们通过一个简单的家庭优化框架来解释福利影响。

How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.5. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.

参考文献：Egger, D., Haushofer, J., Miguel, E., Niehaus, P. and Walker, M. (2022), General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya. Econometrica, 90: 2603-2643. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17945.

5. 不平衡的增长：自动化对收入和财富不平等的影响

Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality

新技术的好处不仅归属于高技能的劳动力，而且也以更高的资本收入的形式归属于资本所有者。这就增加了不平等。为了提出这个论点，我们建立了一个可解的理论，将技术与收入和财富的分配联系起来，而不仅仅是工资的分配，并利用它来研究自动化的分配效应。我们分离出一个新的理论机制：自动化通过提高财富的回报率来增加不平等。回报率提高的另一面是导致工资停滞不前，从而导致分配底部的收入停滞不前。我们使用一个多资产模型的扩展来面对生产性资产和安全资产回报的不同经验趋势，并显示相关的回报措施随着时间的推移而增加。自动化可以解释观察到的收入和财富不平等的部分趋势。

The benefits of new technologies accrue not only to high-skilled labor but also to owners of capital in the form of higher capital incomes. This increases inequality. To make this argument, we develop a tractable theory that links technology to the distribution of income and wealth—and not just that of wages—and use it to study the distributional effects of automation. We isolate a new theoretical mechanism: automation increases inequality by raising returns to wealth. The flip side of such return movements is that automation can lead to stagnant wages and, therefore, stagnant incomes at the bottom of the distribution. We use a multiasset model extension to confront differing empirical trends in returns to productive and safe assets and show that the relevant return measures have increased over time. Automation can account for part of the observed trends in income and wealth inequality.

参考文献：Moll, B., Rachel, L. and Restrepo, P. (2022), Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality. Econometrica, 90: 2645-2683. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19417.

6. 跨国公司、垄断和地方发展：来自联合水果公司的证据

Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence From the United Fruit Company

本文研究了私营企业在发展地方福利设施方面的作用。我们的证据来源于20世纪最大的跨国公司之一，联合水果公司（UFCo）。从1899年到1984年，该公司在所谓的“香蕉共和国”之一的哥斯达黎加获得了大量的土地特许权。我们利用了因变量与土地分配的正交性来实施了一个地理上的断点回归，利用与我们感兴趣的结果正交的土地分配。我们发现，公司对生活水平有一个积极和持续的影响。公司的文件亦对此发现提供了解释：当时的一个关键问题是吸引和保持一个相当大的劳动力，这促使公司大量投资于当地的设施，如教育和卫生基础设施的发展，这可以解释我们的结果。与这一机制相一致，我们通过经验和提议的模型表明，公司的投资努力随着工人的流动而增加。

This paper studies the role of private sector companies in the development of local amenities. We use evidence from one of the largest multinationals of the 20th century: the United Fruit Company (UFCo). The firm was given a large land concession in Costa Rica—one of the so-called “Banana Republics”—from 1899 to 1984. Using administrative census data with census-block geo-references from 1973 to 2011, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity design that exploits a land assignment that is orthogonal to our outcomes of interest. We find that the firm had a positive and persistent effect on living standards. Company documents explain that a key concern at the time was to attract and maintain a sizable workforce, which induced the firm to invest heavily in local amenities—like the development of education and health infrastructure—that can account for our result. Consistent with this mechanism, we show, empirically and through a proposed model, that the firm's investment efforts increase with worker mobility.

参考文献：Méndez, E. and Van Patten, D. (2022), Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence From the United Fruit Company. Econometrica, 90: 2685-2721. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19514.

7. 市场竞争和政治影响：一个综合的方法

Market Competition and Political Influence: An Integrated Approach

市场的运作和政治的运作在实践中是深深交织在一起的。政治决策为市场竞争制定了游戏规则，反之，市场竞争者也参与并影响政治决策。我们开发了一个综合模型来捕捉这两个领域之间的循环性。我们表明，出现了一个正反馈循环，即市场权力产生政治权力，而政治权力产生市场权力，但这个反馈循环是有限度的。如果市场权力过大，政治和市场之间的平衡就会变得一边倒，这就会在政策制定者和主导公司的利益之间形成一个分歧。尽管这样的分歧似乎有利于竞争，但我们表明它如何加剧了市场的静态与动态低效性。一般情况下，我们的模型表明，当竞争被战略决策者中介时，关于市场竞争的直觉会被颠覆。

The operation of markets and of politics are in practice deeply intertwined. Political decisions set the rules of the game for market competition and, conversely, market competitors participate in and influence political decisions. We develop an integrated model to capture the circularity between the two domains. We show that a positive feedback loop emerges such that market power begets political power, and political power begets market power, but that this feedback loop is bounded. With too much market power, the balance between politics and markets itself becomes lopsided and this drives a wedge between the interests of a policymaker and the dominant firm. Although such a wedge would seem pro-competitive, we show how it can exacerbate the static and dynamic inefficiency of market outcomes. More generally, our model demonstrates that intuitions about market competition can be upended when competition is intermediated by a strategic policymaker.

参考文献：Callander, S., Foarta, D. and Sugaya, T. (2022), Market Competition and Political Influence: An Integrated Approach. Econometrica, 90: 2723-2753. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19775.

8. 生产力分散、企业间竞争和劳动份额

Productivity Dispersion, Between-Firm Competition, and the Labor Share

我研究了劳动力市场不完善对劳动力份额的影响，该模型强调生产力分散和企业对工人的竞争之间的互动。我使用涵盖2000年至2015年加拿大企业总体的行政数据来校准该模型。在数据中，大多数公司的劳动份额较高，但由于小部分大型高产公司的影响过大，总的劳动份额较低。我发现，企业生产力分散度的上升导致总劳动份额下降，有利于企业利润。其机制是，生产力的分散性有效地保护了高生产力的公司免受工资竞争。来自跨国和跨行业数据的回归证据同时支持了模型的预测和机制。

I study the effect of labor market imperfections on the labor share in a tractable model that emphasizes the interaction between productivity dispersion and firm competition for workers. I calibrate the model using administrative data covering the universe of firms in Canada from 2000 to 2015. As in the data, most firms have a high labor share, yet the aggregate labor share is low due to the disproportionate effect of a small fraction of large, highly productive firms. I find that a rise in the dispersion of firm productivity causes the aggregate labor share to decline in favor of firm profits. The mechanism is that productivity dispersion effectively shields high-productivity firms from wage competition. Regression evidence from cross-country and cross-industry data supports both the model prediction and mechanism.

参考文献：Gouin-Bonenfant, É. (2022), Productivity Dispersion, Between-Firm Competition, and the Labor Share. Econometrica, 90: 2755-2793. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18612.

9. 收敛包络定理

The Converse Envelope Theorem

我证明了一个包络定理的逆定理：包络公式等同于一个一阶条件。与Milgrom和Segal（2002）的包络定理一样，我的结果不需要选择集的结构。我利用这个包络定理将机制设计中的典型结果扩展到一般结果和偏好，即任何递增的分配都是可实施的，并将其应用于销售信息。

I prove an envelope theorem with a converse: the envelope formula is equivalent to a first-order condition. Like Milgrom and Segal's (2002) envelope theorem, my result requires no structure on the choice set. I use the converse envelope theorem to extend to general outcomes and preferences the canonical result in mechanism design that any increasing allocation is implementable, and apply this to selling information.

参考文献：Sinander, L. (2022), The Converse Envelope Theorem. Econometrica, 90: 2795-2819. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18119.

10. 递归合同的Negishi方法

A Negishi Approach to Recursive Contracts

在本文中，我们认为一大类递归合约可以通过传统的Negishi方法来研究。一个计划者负责为所有经济个体规定当前的行动和未来的效用值分布，从而最大化他们的总加权效用。在凸性条件下，该方法可以得到精确的有效边界。否则，该方法要求合同取决于与基本面不相关的可公开观测的随机信号。我们还为有效合约的特征提供了可操作的一阶条件。最后，将我们的方法与文献中的对偶方法进行了广泛的比较。

In this paper, we argue that a large class of recursive contracts can be studied by means of the conventional Negishi method. A planner is responsible for prescribing current actions along with a distribution of future utility values to all agents, so as to maximize their weighted sum of utilities. Under convexity, the method yields the exact efficient frontier. Otherwise, the implementation requires contracts be contingent on publicly observable random signals uncorrelated to fundamentals. We also provide operational first-order conditions for the characterization of efficient contracts. Finally, we compare extensively our approach with the dual method established in the literature.

参考文献：Bloise, G. and Siconolfi, P. (2022), A Negishi Approach to Recursive Contracts. Econometrica, 90: 2821-2855. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18310.

11. 从评论中学习：选择效应和学习的速度

Learning From Reviews: The Selection Effect and the Speed of Learning

本文建立了一个从在线评论中学习的贝叶斯模型，并研究了在不同评级系统下学习产品质量的条件和学习速度。评级系统提供了以前顾客留下的评论信息。观察产品的评级，并决定是否购买和评论它。我们研究两类评级系统下的学习动力：完整的历史，客户看到完整的历史评论，以及总结统计，平台报告一些过去评论的总结统计。在这两种情况下，学习动力都因选择效应而变得复杂--购买商品的用户类型，以及他们的总体满意度和评论都取决于购买时的信息。我们提供了完全学习的条件，并描述和比较了其在完整历史和总结统计下的速度。我们还表明，提供更多的信息并不总是导致更快的学习，但严格意义上更精细的评级系统却能做到。

This paper develops a model of Bayesian learning from online reviews and investigates the conditions for learning the quality of a product and the speed of learning under different rating systems. A rating system provides information about reviews left by previous customers. observe the ratings of a product and decide whether to purchase and review it. We study learning dynamics under two classes of rating systems: full history, where customers see the full history of reviews, and summary statistics, where the platform reports some summary statistics of past reviews. In both cases, learning dynamics are complicated by a selection effect—the types of users who purchase the good, and thus their overall satisfaction and reviews depend on the information available at the time of purchase. We provide conditions for complete learning and characterize and compare its speed under full history and summary statistics. We also show that providing more information does not always lead to faster learning, but strictly finer rating systems do.

参考文献：Acemoglu, D., Makhdoumi, A., Malekian, A. and Ozdaglar, A. (2022), Learning From Reviews: The Selection Effect and the Speed of Learning. Econometrica, 90: 2857-2899. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA15847.

12. 空间相关的稳健推断

Spatial Correlation Robust Inference

我们提出了一种构造置信区间的方法，该方法考虑了多种形式的空间相关性。区间具有熟悉的“估计值加减标准误差乘以临界值”的形式，但我们提出了构建标准误差和临界值的新方法。标准误差是利用给定的“最坏情况”空间相关模型的人口主成分构建的。临界值的选择是为了确保空间相关的基准参数模型的覆盖率。该方法被证明可以在有限样本的正太假设下控制一类局限非参模型的覆盖率，在大样本中只要空间相关性较弱，即平均成对相关性随着样本量变大而消失，该方法依然能控制覆盖率。我们还提供了关于该方法的效率的结论。

We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar “estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value” form, but we propose new methods for constructing the standard error and the critical value. The standard error is constructed using population principal components from a given “worst-case” spatial correlation model. The critical value is chosen to ensure coverage in a benchmark parametric model for the spatial correlations. The method is shown to control coverage in finite sample Gaussian settings in a restricted but nonparametric class of models and in large samples whenever the spatial correlation is weak, that is, with average pairwise correlations that vanish as the sample size gets large. We also provide results on the efficiency of the method.

参考文献：Müller, U.K. and Watson, M.W. (2022), Spatial Correlation Robust Inference. Econometrica, 90: 2901-2935. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19465.

13. 实现集体规模

Achieving Scale Collectively

发展中国家的许多公司可能太小，无法采用昂贵的生产机器所体现的现代技术。本文表明，租赁市场的互动使这些小公司能够扩大其有效规模并使生产机械化。我们对乌干达的制造业公司进行了调查，发现了非正式集群中的小公司之间活跃的大型机器租赁市场。然后，我们建立了一个企业行为的均衡模型，并利用我们的数据对其进行了估计。我们发现，租赁市场在数量上对机械化和生产力非常重要，因为它为其他使企业规模变小的市场缺陷提供了一个变通办法。租赁市场也决定了促进机械化的发展政策的有效性，如对购买机器的补贴。总的来说，我们的结果表明，要了解低收入国家的技术采用情况，必须考虑到非正式集群内企业与企业之间的相互作用：孤立地关注企业的小规模可能会产生误导。

Many firms in developing countries could be too small to adopt modern technology embodied in expensive production machines. This paper shows that rental market interactions allow these small firms to increase their effective scale and mechanize production. We conduct a survey of manufacturing firms in Uganda, which uncovers an active rental market for large machines between small firms in informal clusters. We then build an equilibrium model of firm behavior and estimate it with our data. We find that the rental market is quantitatively important for mechanization and productivity since it provides a workaround for other market imperfections that keep firms small. The rental market also shapes the effectiveness of development policies to foster mechanization, such as subsidies to purchase machines. Overall, our results point to the importance of taking into account firm-to-firm interactions within informal clusters to understand technology adoption in low income countries: focusing on the small scale of firms in isolation might be misleading.

参考文献：Bassi, V., Muoio, R., Porzio, T., Sen, R. and Tugume, E. (2022), Achieving Scale Collectively. Econometrica, 90: 2937-2978. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18773.