冷知识：全球人口将达80亿

据联合国《世界人口展望2022》报告，预计到11月15日，全球人口将达到80亿。

🤔️小作业：

World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022

From: United Nations

Amid falling growth rates, global population projected to peak around 10.4 billion in the 2080s

New York, 11 July – The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day.

“This year's World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth's eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.

The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100.

World Population Prospects 2022 also states that fertility has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries. Today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth in the long run for a population with low mortality. The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050. “The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult. Conversely, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.”

In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of population at working age (between 25 and 64 years) has been increasing thanks to recent reductions in fertility. This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita, known as the “demographic dividend”. To maximize the potential benefits of a favourable age distribution, countries should invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages and by promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.

The share of global population at ages 65 and above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050. At that point, it is expected that the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide will be more than twice the number of children under age 5 and about the same as the number under age 12. Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing numbers of older persons, including by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems and by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.

Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. Yet in 2021, life expectancy for the least developed countries lagged 7 years behind the global average.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all three components of population change. Global life expectancy at birth fell to 71.0 years in 2021. In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have produced short-term reductions in numbers of pregnancies and births, while for many other countries, there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends. The pandemic severely restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

“Further actions by Governments aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century, because of the youthful age structure of today's global population. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century,” added John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

- ◆ -

注：中文文本为联合国新闻通稿，非官方中文版

含注释原文：

World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022

全球将于2022年11月15日突破80亿人口大关

From: United Nations

Amid falling growth rates, global population projected to peak around 10.4 billion in the 2080s

由于生育率下降，全球人口增长预计将于本世纪八十年代达到104亿的峰值

1）表示“放映；投射（影、像或光）”，英文解释为“to cause a film, image, or light to appear on a screen or other surface”举个🌰：

Laser images were projected onto a screen.

激光图像被投射到了屏幕上。

2）表示“预计，推算”，英文解释为“to calculate an amount or number expected in the future from information already known”举个🌰：

Government spending is projected to rise by three percent next year.

明年政府的支出预计将增加3%。

可以作名词，也可以作动词，表示“（达到）峰值”，英文解释为“When something peaks, it reaches its highest value or its highest level.”举个🌰：

Temperatures have peaked at over 90 degrees.

温度已达到峰值，超过了90度。

New York, 11 July – The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day.

纽约，7月11日 – 今天是世界人口日，据最新发布的《世界人口展望2022》，全球预计将于2022年11月15日突破80亿人口大关，印度将于2023年超过中国成为全球人口最多的国家。 

surpass表示“优于；超过”，英文解释为“If one person or thing surpasses another, the first is better than, or has more of a particular quality than, the second.”举个🌰：

He was determined to surpass the achievements of his older brothers.

他决心超过他的几位哥哥的成就。

表示“人口稠密的”，英文解释为“A populous country, area, or place has a lot of people living in it”举个🌰：

China is the world's most populous country.

中国是世界上人口最多的国家。

“This year's World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth's eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.

联合国秘书长安东尼·古特雷斯（António Guterres）说，“今年的世界人口日恰逢具有里程碑意义的一年，这是因为我们将迎来地球上的80亿人口。这是一个庆祝我们的多样性，认识到我们的共性，以及由于卫生健康的进步带来人均预期寿命的延长和母婴和儿童死亡率的大幅下降的奇迹的时刻。”他补充说，“同时，这也是提醒我们关爱我们星球的共同责任，以及反思我们仍然没有实现我们承诺的时刻。”

表示“里程碑；重大事件；转折点”，英文解释为“an important event in the development or history of something or in someone's life”举个🌰：

He felt that moving out of his parents' home was a real milestone in his life.

他感到搬出父母家是他一生中一个真正的转折点。

inhabitant /ɪnˈhæb.ɪ.tənt/ 表示“（某地的）居民，栖居动物”，英文解释为“a person or animal that lives in a particular place”如：a city of five million inhabitants 拥有500万居民的城市。

表示“多样性，多样化”，英文解释为“the fact of many different types of things or people being included in something; a range of different things or people”举个🌰：

Does television adequately reflect the ethnic and cultural diversity of the country?

电视节目能充分反映出这个国家民族和文化的多样性吗？

marvel /ˈmɑː.vəl/ 表示“（对…）感到惊奇，惊叹”，英文解释为“to show or experience great surprise or admiration”举个🌰：

We paused to marvel at the view.

我们停下来，感叹景色之美。

maternal /məˈtɜː.nəl/ 表示“母亲的；母亲般的”，英文解释为“behaving or feeling in the way that a mother does towards her child, especially in a kind, loving way”如：maternal instincts 母亲的天性。

mortality /mɔːˈtælɪtɪ/ 表示“死亡数量；死亡率”，英文解释为“the number of deaths in a particular situation or period of time”。

区分：

📍morbidity /mɔːˈbɪdɪtɪ/ 表示“发病（率）”，英文解释为“the morbidity of a disease is how many people have it in a particular population”。

The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100.

2020年，世界人口的增长率已下降至百分之一以下，这是1950年以来增长最慢的时期。联合国最新的人口预测表明，全球人口将于2030年和2050年分别增长至85亿和97亿，预期于2080年代增长至峰值，并将维持在这一水平直至2100年。 

World Population Prospects 2022 also states that fertility has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries. Today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth in the long run for a population with low mortality. The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

《世界人口展望2022》指出许多国家的生育率在最近几十年下降很快。今天，三分之二的世界人口生活在生育率低于平均每个妇女终身生育2.1个孩子的更替水平的国家或地区，即在长期低死亡率情况下实现人口零增长的生育水平。由于经历长期的低生育率，以及一些国家或地区上升的人口迁出率，61个国家或地区的人口预计将在2022至2050年期间减少超过百分之一。

表示“富饶；丰产；生殖力；能生育性；可繁殖性”，英文解释为“the state of being fertile”，如：a fertility symbol 生殖力的象征，declining fertility rates 下降的生育率，the fertility of the soil/land 土壤的肥沃；土地的丰饶，a god of fertility 丰收之神，fertility treatment (= medical help given to a person to help them have a baby) 不孕症治疗。

1）表示“持续的，持久的”，英文解释为“continuing for a long time”举个🌰：

His speech was greeted by sustained applause.

他的演讲博得了经久不息的掌声。

2）表示“坚定的，坚持不懈的”（determined），2020年政府工作报告中的例句：持续打造市场化、法治化、国际化营商环境 make sustained efforts to create a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment.

elevated /ˈel.ɪ.veɪ.tɪd/ 1）表示“提高的；升高的；抬高的”，英文解释为“raised”举个🌰：

The doctor said I was to keep my leg elevated.

医生说我要保持腿部抬高。

2）表示“高出正常水平的；偏高的”，英文解释为“greater than is normal or reasonable”举个🌰：

He has a slightly elevated idea of his own importance.

他自视过高。

emigration表示“移居外国，迁移出境；移民”，英文解释为“the process of leaving a country permanently and going to live in another one”

区分：

📍immigration表示“移居（入境）；移民人数”，英文解释为“the act of someone coming to live in a different country”

More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050.

从现在起至2050年，超过一半的全球人口增长将来自以下八个国家：民主刚果共和国、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、印度、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾和坦桑尼亚联合共和国。撒哈拉以南非洲地区将贡献超过一半的全球新增人口。 

“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult. Conversely, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.”

联合国主管经济和社会事务的副秘书长刘振民指出，“人口增长与可持续发展是复杂和多维的关系。过快的人口增长将会使消除贫困，战胜饥饿和营养不良和扩大健康和教育普及率的努力更加困难。与之相反的是，实现可持续发展的目标，特别是有关健康，教育和性别平等的目标，将有助于降低生育水平和减缓全球人口的增长。”

表示“（对环境没有损害或损害很小因而）可持续的，能长期维持的”，英文解释为“causing little or no damage to the environment and therefore able to continue for a long time”举个🌰：

A large international meeting was held with the aim of promoting sustainable development in all countries.

召开了一个旨在推进所有国家可持续发展的大型国际会议。

multidimensional /ˌmʌl.ti.daɪˈmen.ʃən.əl/ 表示“多元的，多方面的，有众多特点的”，英文解释为“having many different features”举个🌰：

Crime is a multidimensional problem.

犯罪是一个复杂多元的问题。

eradicate /ɪˈræd.ɪ.keɪt/ 表示“根除；消灭；杜绝”，英文解释为“to get rid of something completely or destroy something bad”举个🌰：

The government claims to be doing all it can to eradicate corruption.

政府声称正尽其所能根治腐败。

malnutrition /ˌmæl.njuːˈtrɪʃ.ən/ 表示“营养不良”，英文解释为“physical weakness and bad health caused by having too little food, or too little of the types of food necessary for good health”举个🌰：

Many of the refugees are suffering from severe malnutrition.

许多难民严重营养不良。

表示“相反地；反过来”，英文解释为“in a way that is the opposite or reverse of sth”举个🌰：

You can add the fluid to the powder, or, conversely, the powder to the fluid.

可把液体加入粉末，或者相反，把粉末加入液体。

In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of population at working age (between 25 and 64 years) has been increasing thanks to recent reductions in fertility. This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita, known as the “demographic dividend”. To maximize the potential benefits of a favourable age distribution, countries should invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages and by promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.

在撒哈拉以南非洲的大部分国家，以及亚洲和拉丁美洲的部分国家，由于生育率的下降，劳动力年龄人口（25-64 岁）的比重将增加。这一人口年龄结构的变化将会带来一段有限的加快人均经济快速增长的机会，即“人口红利”。要最大化利用这一年龄分布带来的优势，相关国家应该大力投资于人力资本，通过保证各年龄的人口享受健康照顾和优质教育，促进生产性就业和体面工作。

Caribbean /ˌkær.ɪˈbiː.ən/ 表示“加勒比海地区的；加勒比海地区人的”，英文解释为“belonging to or relating to Caribbean islands and countries, or their people”如：Caribbean food 加勒比海食物。

There are bound to be changes when the new system is introduced.

引进新系统后一定会发生变化。

📍-bound后缀，还可以表示“受限于…的，不能离开…的”，英文解释为“(causing people to be) unable to leave a place because of an unwanted condition”举个🌰：

During his long illness he was completely housebound (= he could not leave the house).

久病期间，他只能一直呆在家里。

表示“每人的；人均的”，英文解释为“for each person”举个🌰：

Per capita income rose sharply last year.

去年人均收入猛增。

1）作形容词，表示“人口的；人口统计的；人口学的”，英文解释为“relating to demography (= the study of populations and the different groups that make them up)”举个🌰：

There have been monumental social and demographic changes in the country.

该国的社会和人口状况已经发生了巨大的变化。

2）作名词，表示“（顾客）族群”，英文解释为“a group of people, for example customers, who are similar in age, social class, etc.”举个🌰：

This demographic (young teenagers) is the fastest-growing age group using the site.

该族群（十几岁的年轻人）是使用这个网站人数增长最快的年龄群体。

dividend /ˈdɪv.ɪ.dend/ 表示“红利，股息”，英文解释为“(a part of) the profit of a company that is paid to the people who own shares in it”举个🌰：

Dividends will be sent to shareholders.

红利将被派发给股东。

作形容词，表示“优质的，优良的，高级的”，英文解释为“of a high standard”举个🌰：

This is a quality product.

这是优质产品。

The share of global population at ages 65 and above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050. At that point, it is expected that the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide will be more than twice the number of children under age 5 and about the same as the number under age 12. Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing numbers of older persons, including by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems and by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.

全球65岁及以上人口的比重将从2022年的百分之十增长至2050年的百分之十六。届时，65岁以上老龄人口的数量将是5岁以下儿童人口数量的两倍，且与12岁以下儿童的数量相当。面临老龄化的国家应该逐步采取措施调整公共项目应对不断增长的老龄人口，包括通过提高社会福利和优化退休金制度的可持续性以建立普惠的医疗保健和长期护理制度。

表示“养老金；退休金；抚恤金”，英文解释为“an amount of money paid regularly by the government or a private company to a person who does not work any more because they are too old or have become ill”。

📍政府工作报告中经常出现的一个词，比如2017年报告：提高低保、优抚、退休人员基本养老金等标准，We increased subsistence allowances, benefits for entitled groups, basic pension payments, and other subsidies;

Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. Yet in 2021, life expectancy for the least developed countries lagged 7 years behind the global average.

2019年，全球人口的人均预期寿命为72.8岁，比1990年提高了9岁。死亡率的进一步降低，将导致人均预期寿命于2050年进一步提高至77.2岁。但是，在2021年，最不发达国家的人均预期寿命比全球平均水平要低7岁。 

life expectancy /ˈlaɪf ɪkˌspek.tən.si/ 表示“（尤指人的）预期寿命”，英文解释为“the length of time that a living thing, especially a human being, is likely to live”举个🌰：

Life expectancy in Europe increased greatly in the 20th century.

欧洲人的预期寿命在20世纪大幅增长。

表示“长寿；长命；持久”，英文解释为“long life; the fact of lasting a long time”举个🌰：

We wish you both health and longevity.

我们祝愿您二位健康长寿。

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all three components of population change. Global life expectancy at birth fell to 71.0 years in 2021. In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have produced short-term reductions in numbers of pregnancies and births, while for many other countries, there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends. The pandemic severely restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

自2019年底以来的全球新冠疫情影响到人口变化的所有三个部分（出生，死亡和迁移）。2021年，全球人均预期寿命下降至71.0岁。在有些疫情严重的国家，妇女怀孕和生孩子的数量经历了短暂的下降，但是在更多的国家，还没有证据显示疫情影响生育水平和趋势。另一方面，疫情也严重影响了人类迁移，包括国际迁移。

表示“接连地，连续地”，英文解释为“happening one after the other without any break”举个🌰：

It was the team's fourth successive defeat.

那是球队接连第4次失利。

“Further actions by Governments aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century, because of the youthful age structure of today's global population. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century,” added John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

联合国经济和社会事务部人口司司长约翰·威尔莫斯（John Wilmoth）指出，“由于当今全球人口偏年轻的年龄结构，政府进一步采取促进生育率降低的行动，不大可能影响从现在起至本世纪中叶的人口增长的步伐。但是，长期低生育率的积累效应会对本世纪下半叶的人口增长产生实质性的降速效果。”

表示“累积的”，英文解释为“If a series of events have a cumulative effect, each event makes the effect greater.”举个🌰：

It is simple pleasures, such as a walk on a sunny day, which have a cumulative effect on our mood.

诸如在晴朗的日子散步这样简朴的乐趣对我们的情绪有累积性益处。

这些发现表明男性和女性之间存在着重大的意见分歧。

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