德国媒体漫画：印度人口超越中国

近日，德国媒体刊登漫画：印度人口超越中国。

🤔️小作业：

A. The ratio of children and retirees to working-age adults in India.

B. The ability of India to lift itself from poverty with a massive workforce.

C. The challenges posed by underemployment in India.

D. The potential for economic growth resulting from a fast-expanding young workforce.

A. They lack access to family planning and education.

B. The jobs most women take are so poorly paid.

C. They carry nearly all of the household burdens.

D. They face safety concerns in the formal workforce.

A. Industrial manufacturing still occupies the central role in the Indian economy.

B. The country lacks a low-cost digital infrastructure.

C. Chip makers are not looking to India as a high-end substitute for China.

D. Services now make up a huge and exciting part of the Indian economy.

无注释原文：

Will This Be the ‘Indian Century’? Four Key Questions

From: The New York Times

It is a turning point the world has not seen in centuries, and is unlikely to see again for centuries more.

India is on the cusp of passing China in population, according to the latest U.N. estimates. At 1.428 billion people, India has already edged past China's mainland, the data show.

With China’s population declining, the margin between the two countries will only grow as India becomes the most populous country in history. What had long been the world’s largest democracy is now, simply, the world’s largest everything.

Can India take advantage of its size?

India’s growth curve is the envy of aging countries like China, but the demographic future differs by region of the country.

There was a time when India and China wanted to suppress the rate of population growth, by reducing the number of births. That era has long receded.

The gentle slope of the demographic curve propelling India into first place looks enviable to the many developed nations that are rapidly aging. Indians are living longer, and the number of babies being born each year has barely budged.

In some of India’s regions, the population is still growing too fast for their economies, producing many more able-bodied young people than there are jobs to occupy them. In other parts, however – especially the better-developed south, where women have more education and family planning programs have proved successful – the population has already peaked. There, young families rarely produce more than two children.

The physical needs of nearly a billion and a half people are imposing a terrible strain on India’s environment. But as the country lifts itself from deepest poverty, it is no longer subject to the famines of old. Instead, its future as far and away the world’s biggest work force is leading some to hope for an “Indian century” in the making.

Does India stand to reap a “demographic dividend”?

Having a fast-expanding young work force could be a big opportunity — or a disaster.

India is a country primed to work. More than two-thirds of all Indians are between the ages of 15 and 59. The country’s ratio of children and retirees to working-age adults is remarkably low.

But this opportunity comes with huge challenges. That “demographic dividend” could instead become something like a disaster. In some recent years, India has squeaked past China to claim the title of fastest-growing major economy. But it has never expanded fast enough to produce sufficient formal employment for everyone. The country needs about nine million new jobs every year just to keep pace; the annual shortfall helps relegate many to India’s old standby, agricultural work.

Most people in India lack the means to be “unemployed” – in the work force but without a job. Underemployment is the more discreet danger. Wages have been stagnant for eight years, according to an analysis by Jean Drèze, an economist at Delhi University. Economic growth without an equivalent increase in jobs makes India’s massively unequal society even more so, raising the potential for unrest.

Can India get more women into the work force?

Women work outside the home at lower rates in India than almost any other country, a huge roadblock for economic expansion.

India has one of the world’s lowest rates of formal employment for women: about one in five. China’s is almost double that rate, higher than the United States’ and the world average. An economy cannot meet its potential when it draws on the contributions of so few women.

Also worrisome, the rate has actually declined in India even as most of the country’s economic conditions have improved. The explanation favored by economists is that the jobs most women take are so poorly paid that as soon as a family can do without the extra income, wives stop working outside the home.

That does not mean women in India do not work hard. They are a visible presence in the 41 percent of society that is still in agriculture, and they carry nearly all of the household burdens. But so long as these women remain outside the formal work force, they cannot enter its most productive categories, in industry and services. Improved access to family planning, better education, efforts to change societal attitudes and measures to ensure women’s safety could help more women take on formal work.

Can India chart its own path to prosperity?

India’s economic story will not be a repetition of China’s — which could offer advantages.

Western countries are now rushing to embrace India as an alternative to China. But the obstacles that have kept India from following the same program over the past 30 years remain in place: ineffective governance, insufficient infrastructure, and scanty spending on primary education and health.

A “Make in India” program championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in its eighth year, has been slow to take off.

India’s economic story, however it turns out, will not be a repetition of China’s. There are many ways in which India can rise, especially with industrial manufacturing no longer occupying the central role in the world economy that it once did.

Services now make up a huge and exciting part of the Indian economy, augmented by a low-cost digital infrastructure that India developed on its own. Other glimmers are also emerging: Chip makers are looking to India as a high-end substitute for China; online services are allowing millions of young Indians to work abroad without leaving home; and even life in India’s villages is becoming more urbanized by the year.

The only certainty about the new biggest country in the world is that it will be unlike any that came before it.

- ◆ -

注：中文文本为纽约时报官方译文，仅供参考

含注释全文：

印度人口即将超过中国，这意味着什么

Will This Be the ‘Indian Century’? Four Key Questions

From: The New York Times

It is a turning point the world has not seen in centuries, and is unlikely to see again for centuries more.

这是几个世纪以来世界从未出现过的转折点，而且在今后几个世纪里也不太可能再次看到。

India is on the cusp of passing China in population, according to the latest U.N. estimates. At 1.428 billion people, India has already edged past China's mainland, the data show.

根据联合国的最新估计，印度人口即将超过中国。数据显示，印度人口为14.28亿，已经超过中国大陆。

cusp /kʌsp/ 表示“分界线”，英文解释为“the dividing line between two very different things”，on the cusp 表示“介于两个状态之间；将要进入特定状态”，英文解释为“If you say that someone or something is on the cusp, you mean they are between two states, or are about to be in a particular state.” 如：on the cusp of adulthood 即将成年。

edge /edʒ/ 表示“（使）徐徐移动；（使）缓慢发展”，英文解释为“to move slowly with gradual movements or in gradual stages, or to make someone or something move in this way”举个🌰：A long line of traffic edged its way forward. 一条长长的车龙缓缓向前移动。

作名词，可表示“优势；优越之处”，英文解释为“an advantage over other people”，可以替换advantage，举个🌰：The company needs to improve its competitive edge. 公司必须提高它的竞争力。

With China’s population declining, the margin between the two countries will only grow as India becomes the most populous country in history. What had long been the world’s largest democracy is now, simply, the world’s largest everything.

随着中国人口减少，印度成为历史上人口最多的国家，两国之间的差距只会不断扩大。长期以来，印度一直是世界上最大的民主国家，现在简单地说，世界上最大的一切都可以放在它的名下。

margin /ˈmɑː.dʒɪn/ 表示“差数，差额”，英文解释为“the amount by which one thing is different from another”

populous 表示“人口稠密的”，英文解释为“A populous country, area, or place has a lot of people living in it”举个🌰：China is the world's most populous country. 中国是世界上人口最多的国家。

Can India take advantage of its size? 印度能否利用其规模优势？

India’s growth curve is the envy of aging countries like China, but the demographic future differs by region of the country.

印度的增长曲线令中国等老龄化国家羡慕不已，但该国的人口前景却因地区而异。

curve /kɜːv/ 表示“曲线，弧线；转弯”，英文解释为“a line that bends continuously and has no straight parts”如：a curve in the road 道路转弯处。

demographic 1）作形容词，表示“人口的；人口统计的；人口学的”，英文解释为“relating to demography (= the study of populations and the different groups that make them up)”举个🌰：There have been monumental social and demographic changes in the country. 该国的社会和人口状况已经发生了巨大的变化。

2）作名词，表示“（顾客）族群”，英文解释为“a group of people, for example customers, who are similar in age, social class, etc.”举个🌰：This demographic (young teenagers) is the fastest-growing age group using the site. 该族群（十几岁的年轻人）是使用这个网站人数增长最快的年龄群体。

There was a time when India and China wanted to suppress the rate of population growth, by reducing the number of births. That era has long receded.

曾经有一段时间，印度和中国都希望通过减少出生人数来抑制人口增速。那个时代早已远去。

表示“压制；阻止；抑制”，英文解释为“to prevent sth from growing, developing or continuing”举个🌰：The virus suppresses the body's immune system. 这种病毒会抑制人体的免疫系统。

recede /rɪˈsiːd/ 表示“逐渐远离；变得模糊，逐渐淡漠”，英文解释为“to move further away into the distance, or to become less clear or less bright”举个🌰：As the boat picked up speed, the coastline receded into the distance until finally it became invisible. 船越开越快，海岸线渐渐远去，直至最后从视线中消失。

The gentle slope of the demographic curve propellingIndia into first place looks enviable to the many developed nations that are rapidly aging. Indians are living longer, and the number of babies being born each year has barely budged.

将印度推至首位的人口曲线呈平缓上升，这令许多正在迅速老龄化的发达国家羡慕不已。印度人的寿命延长了，而每年出生的婴儿数量几乎没有变化。

1）表示“山坡”，英文解释为“(part of) the side of a hill or mountain”如：a ski/mountain slope 滑雪坡/山坡替换。2）表示“斜坡”，英文解释为“a surface that lies at an angle to the horizontal so that some points on it are higher than others”举个🌰：The roof is at a slope (= at an angle to a horizontal surface) of 30°. 屋顶有30°的坡度。

表示“推动；驱动；推进”，英文解释为“To propel something in a particular direction means to cause it to move in that direction.”举个🌰：The tiny rocket is attached to the spacecraft and is designed to propel it toward Mars. 微型火箭附在宇宙飞船上，用来推进飞船飞向火星。The film propelled him to international stardom. 这部电影使他成为了国际巨星。

budge /bʌdʒ/ 1）表示“（使）改变主意”，英文解释为“to change your opinion or to make someone change their opinion”举个🌰：I've tried persuading her, but she won't budge. 我试图说服她，可她就是不改变想法。

2）表示“（使）轻微移动”，英文解释为“If something will not budge or you cannot budge it, it will not move.”举个🌰：I've tried moving the desk but it won't budge/I can't budge it. 我试着移动书桌，但它纹丝不动。

In some of India’s regions, the population is still growing too fast for their economies, producing many more able-bodied young people than there are jobs to occupy them. In other parts, however – especially the better-developed south, where women have more education and family planning programs have proved successful – the population has already peaked. There, young families rarely produce more than two children.

在印度的一些地区，人口增长对当地经济来说仍然过快，工作机会的增长远赶不上身体健康的年轻人数量的增长。然而，在其他地区——尤其是在较发达的南方，女性受教育程度更高，计划生育项目也已证明取得了成功——人口数量已经达到顶峰。在那些地方，年轻的家庭很少生育两个以上的孩子。

able-bodied /ˌeɪ.bəlˈbɒd.id/ 表示“体格健全的，强壮的”，英文解释为“used to refer to someone who is healthy and has no illness, injury, or condition that makes it difficult to do the things that other people do”举个🌰：All able-bodied young men were forced to join the army. 所有体格健壮的青年男子都被强征入伍。

可以作名词，也可以作动词，表示“（达到）峰值”，英文解释为“When something peaks, it reaches its highest value or its highest level.”举个🌰：Temperatures have peaked at over 90 degrees. 温度已达到峰值，超过了90度。

The physical needs of nearly a billion and a half people are imposing a terrible strain on India’s environment. But as the country lifts itself from deepest poverty, it is no longer subject to the famines of old. Instead, its future as far and away the world’s biggest work force is leading some to hope for an “Indian century” in the making.

近15亿人的物质需求给印度的环境带来了可怕的压力。但是随着这个国家摆脱了极度贫困，它不再像过去那样遭受饥荒的影响。作为世界最大劳动力市场的未来，该国让一些人对“印度世纪”充满期待。

1）表示“推行；强制实行”，英文解释为“to officially force a rule, tax, punishment, etc. to be obeyed or received”举个🌰：Very high taxes have recently been imposed on cigarettes. 最近对香烟开征很高的税。

📍《经济学人》（The Economist）一篇分析拜登贸易政策的文章中提到：The other matter is what Mr Biden will do with the tariffs imposed by Mr Trump. 另一件事是拜登将如何处理特朗普实施的关税。

2）表示“把（尤指信仰或生活方式）强加于”，英文解释为“to force someone to accept something, especially a belief or way of living”举个🌰：I don't want them to impose their religious beliefs on my children. 我不希望他们把自己的宗教信仰强加给我的孩子们。

3）表示“勉强；打扰，麻烦”，英文解释为“to expect someone to do something for you or spend time with you when they do not want to or when it is not convenient for them”举个🌰：She's always imposing on people - asking favours and getting everyone to do things for her. 她总是强人所难——要人帮忙做这做那。

1）表示“压力；重负；重压之下出现的问题（或担忧等）”，英文解释为“pressure on sb/sth because they have too much to do or manage, or sth very difficult to deal with; the problems, worry or anxiety that this produces”举个🌰：You will learn to cope with the stresses and strains of public life. 你要学会怎样应付公众人物生活的紧张和辛劳。

2）表示“（动植物的）品系，株系，品种”，英文解释为“an animal or plant from a particular group whose characteristics are different in some way from others of the same group”举个🌰：Scientists have discovered a new strain of the virus which is much more dangerous. 科学家们已经发现了一种危险得多的新病毒。

📍此前9000名乘客因鼻拭子重复使用受害文中出现的例句：The health ministry confirmed this week that it had recorded two cases of the more infectious strain that was first detected in India. 卫生部本周证实，已发现了两例在印度首次发现的更具传染性的病毒株。

3）strains 表示“旋律；曲调”，英文解释为“the sound of music being played or performed”举个🌰：I could hear the strains of Mozart in the background. 我听见背景音中有莫扎特的旋律。

表示“饥荒；饥荒时期”，英文解释为“a situation in which there is not enough food for a great number of people, causing illness and death, or a particular period when this happens”举个🌰：Another crop failure could result in widespread famine. 如果庄稼再次歉收就可能导致大范围饥荒。

Does India stand to reap a “demographic dividend”? 印度是否可以收获“人口红利”？

Having a fast-expanding young work force could be a big opportunity — or a disaster.

拥有快速增长的年轻劳动力可能是一个巨大的机会，也可能是一种灾难。

reap /riːp/ 表示“收割，收获；获得”，英文解释为“to cut and collect a grain crop”

📍reap the benefit, reward, etc.表示“得到收益/报酬等”，英文解释为“to get something good as a result of your own actions”举个🌰：She studied every evening and reaped the benefit at exam time. 她每天晚上都坚持学习，考试时受益匪浅。

📍reap what you have sown表示“种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆；善有善报，恶有恶报”，英文解释为“to win or lose as a result of something you did in the past”

dividend /ˈdɪv.ɪ.dend/ 表示“红利，股息”，英文解释为“(a part of) the profit of a company that is paid to the people who own shares in it”举个🌰：Dividends will be sent to shareholders. 红利将被派发给股东。

India is a country primed to work. More than two-thirds of all Indians are between the ages of 15 and 59. The country’s ratio of children and retirees to working-age adults is remarkably low.

印度是一个劳动人口充裕的国家。超过三分之二的印度人年龄在15岁到59岁之间。该国的儿童及退休人员同劳动年龄成年人之间的比例非常低。

But this opportunity comes with huge challenges. That “demographic dividend” could instead become something like a disaster. In some recent years, India has squeaked past China to claim the title of fastest-growing major economy. But it has never expanded fast enough to produce sufficient formal employment for everyone. The country needs about nine million new jobs every year just to keep pace; the annual shortfall helps relegate many to India’s old standby, agricultural work.

但这一机遇也伴随着巨大的挑战。这种“人口红利”反而可能变成一场灾难。最近几年，印度勉强超过中国成为增长最快的主要经济体。但其增长速度从未快到足以为所有人提供足够的正式就业机会。印度每年需要大约900万个新增工作岗位才能跟上人口的增长；每年的职位短缺使得许多人不得不从事印度的传统工作——农业。

squeak /skwiːk/ 表示“（测验、竞赛等）勉强通过；侥幸成功”，英文解释为“to only just succeed in something such as a test or competition”举个🌰：He squeaked through the exam. 他勉强通过了考试。

表示“使贬职；使降级；降低…的地位”，英文解释为“to give sb a lower or less important position, rank, etc. than before”举个🌰：He was relegated to the role of assistant. 他被降级做助手了。

Most people in India lack the means to be “unemployed” – in the work force but without a job. Underemployment is the more discreet danger. Wages have been stagnant for eight years, according to an analysis by Jean Drèze, an economist at Delhi University. Economic growth without an equivalent increase in jobs makes India’s massively unequal society even more so, raising the potential for unrest.

大多数印度人不具备“失业”条件（失业是指身为劳动力大军一员，但没有工作）。就业不足是一种更为隐蔽的危险。德里大学经济学家让·德罗兹的分析显示，该国工资水平已经停滞了八年。经济增长而就业岗位却没有相应地增加，这使得印度严重不平等的社会变得更加不平等，增加了动荡的可能性。

discreet /dɪˈskriːt/ 表示“审慎的，谨慎的，小心的”，英文解释为“careful not to cause embarrassment or attract too much attention, especially by keeping something secret”举个🌰：The family made discreet enquiries about his background. 那家人小心翼翼地打听他的背景。

stagnant /ˈstæɡ.nənt/ 表示“停滞的，不发展的”，英文解释为“not growing or developing”如：a stagnant economy 停滞的经济。

1）作形容词，表示“（价值、数量、意义、重要性等）相等的，相同的”，英文解释为“equal in value, amount, meaning, importance, etc.”举个🌰：Eight kilometres is roughly equivalent to five miles. 八公里约等于五英里。

2）作名词，表示“相等的东西；等量；对应词”，英文解释为“a thing, amount, word, etc. that is equivalent to sth else”。比如，提到Weibo时候会介绍为中国版的Twitter，常见的有几种说法：

🧣Weibo, China's Twitter-like service (SCMP)

🧣Weibo, the Chinese equivalent to Twitter (NPR NEWS)

🧣Twitter-like Weibo (Reuters)

🧣Weibo, a Twitter-like platform (NYT)

Can India get more women into the work force? 印度能让更多女性进入劳动力市场吗？

Women work outside the home at lower rates in India than almost any other country, a huge roadblock for economic expansion.

在印度，女性外出工作的比例几乎比所有其他国家都低，这是经济扩张的一个巨大障碍。

roadblock /ˈrəʊd.blɒk/ 表示“路障”，英文解释为“a temporary structure put across a road to stop traffic”

India has one of the world’s lowest rates of formal employment for women: about one in five. China’s is almost double that rate, higher than the United States’ and the world average. An economy cannot meet its potential when it draws on the contributions of so few women.

印度是世界上女性正式就业率最低的国家之一：大约是五分之一。中国的女性正式就业率几乎是印度的两倍，高于美国和世界平均水平。如果女性的贡献如此之少，一个经济体就无法发挥其潜力。

Also worrisome, the rate has actually declined in India even as most of the country’s economic conditions have improved. The explanation favored by economists is that the jobs most women take are so poorly paid that as soon as a family can do without the extra income, wives stop working outside the home.

同样令人担忧的是，尽管印度大部分地区的经济状况有所改善，但女性正式就业率实际上有所下降。经济学家认同的解释是，大多数女性所从事的工作报酬太低，以至于一旦家庭不再需要额外收入，妻子们就会停止外出工作。

That does not mean women in India do not work hard. They are a visible presence in the 41 percent of society that is still in agriculture, and they carry nearly all of the household burdens. But so long as these women remain outside the formal work force, they cannot enter its most productive categories, in industry and services. Improved access to family planning, better education, efforts to change societal attitudes and measures to ensure women’s safety could help more women take on formal work.

这并不意味着印度女性不努力工作。她们在仍从事农业生产的41%人口中占据显著位置，而且她们几乎承担了所有的家务负担。但是，只要这些女性仍然处于正规劳动力大军之外，她们就无法进入工业和服务业等生产力最高的领域。提高获得计划生育的机会、改善教育、努力改变社会态度，以及采取措施确保女性安全可以帮助更多女性从事正规工作。

Can India chart its own path to prosperity? 印度能找到自己的繁荣之路吗？

India’s economic story will not be a repetition of China’s — which could offer advantages.

印度的经济故事不会是中国的翻版——这一点可能带来优势。

chart /tʃɑːt/ 作动词，1）表示“计划行动步骤；制定（行动计划）”，英文解释为“to plan a course of action”举个🌰：She had carefully charted her route to the top of her profession. 她周密地制订了达到她职业巅峰的行动计划。

2）表示“（音乐）进榜，上榜”，英文解释为“to enter the music charts”举个🌰：Their first record didn't even chart. 他们的首张唱片连排行榜都没有进。

作名词，chart /tʃɑːt/ 表示“图表；示意图；曲线图”，英文解释为“a drawing that shows information in a simple way, often using lines and curves to show amounts”

prosperity /prɒsˈper.ə.ti/ 表示“成功；（尤指经济上的）繁荣，昌盛”，英文解释为“the state of being successful and having a lot of money”举个🌰：A country's future prosperity depends, to an extent, upon the quality of education of its people. 一个国家未来的繁荣昌盛在一定程度上取决于国民的教育质量。

Western countries are now rushing to embrace India as an alternative to China. But the obstacles that have kept India from following the same program over the past 30 years remain in place: ineffective governance, insufficient infrastructure, and scanty spending on primary education and health.

现在，西方国家正争先恐后地把印度作为中国的替代品。但在过去30年里阻碍印度实现和中国同样增长计划的障碍仍然存在：治理效率低下、基础设施不足、以及初级教育和卫生支出不足。

scanty /ˈskæn.ti/ 表示“少量的；不足的；缺乏的”，英文解释为“smaller in size or amount than is considered necessary or is hoped for”如：scanty evidence/information 不充足的证据/信息。

A “Make in India” program championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in its eighth year, has been slow to take off.

印度总理莫迪倡导的“印度制造”计划目前已进入第八个年头，但进展缓慢。

champion /ˈtʃæm.pi.ən/ 作动词，表示“支持，声援；捍卫，为…斗争”，英文解释为“to support, defend, or fight for a person, belief, right, or principle enthusiastically”

India’s economic story, however it turns out, will not be a repetition of China’s. There are many ways in which India can rise, especially with industrial manufacturing no longer occupying the central role in the world economy that it once did.

无论结果如何，印度的经济故事都不会是中国的翻版。印度崛起的方式有很多，尤其是在工业制造业不再像过去那样在世界经济中占据中心地位的情况下。

Services now make up a huge and exciting part of the Indian economy, augmented by a low-cost digital infrastructure that India developed on its own. Other glimmers are also emerging: Chip makers are looking to India as a high-end substitute for China; online services are allowing millions of young Indians to work abroad without leaving home; and even life in India’s villages is becoming more urbanized by the year.

服务业现在是印度经济中令人兴奋的巨大组成部分，加上印度自己开发的低成本数字基础设施使得服务业得到了增强。其他曙光也在浮现：芯片制造商正将印度视为中国的高端替代品；在线服务让数以百万的印度年轻人不用离开家就能得到海外工作；甚至印度农村的生活也在逐年城市化。

表示“提高；增大；加强”，英文解释为“to increase the size or value of something by adding something to it”举个🌰：He would have to find work to augment his income. 他可能不得不找活儿干来增加收入。

glimmer /ˈɡlɪm.ər/ 表示“微弱的（好）迹象；一丝，一线”，英文解释为“a slight sign of something good or positive”举个🌰：This month's sales figures offer a glimmer of hope for the depressed economy. 这个月的销售额给萧条的经济带来一丝希望。

1）作名词，表示“代替者；代替物；代用品；（体育比赛中的）替补队员”，英文解释为“a person or thing that you use or have instead of the one you normally use or have”，如：a meat substitute 肉食替代品。

2）作动词，表示“用…代替，代之以”，英文解释为“to use something or someone instead of another thing or person”举个🌰：You can substitute oil for butter in this recipe. 这道菜中你可以用食用油代替黄油。

The only certainty about the new biggest country in the world is that it will be unlike any that came before it.

唯一可以确定的是，这个新的世界人口最大国将不同于以往的任何一个国家。

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