今年没参加高考的，请进！

有个段子说的，为什么每年高考讨论最激烈的都是语文作文，大家怎么不讨论点数学最后一道大题？讨论点英语？因为除了作文，其他的都看不懂了。是这样吗？

我们今天就一起来看看，2023年高考英语阅读真题。看你还会不会做？

· 新高考I卷（山东、河北、湖北、湖南、江苏、广东、福建（语数外））

· 新高考II卷（海南、辽宁、重庆（语数外））

· 全国甲卷（广西、贵州、四川、西藏）

· 全国乙卷（河南、江西、陕西、甘肃、内蒙古、青海、宁夏、新疆）

以下材料为2023年新高考I卷英语阅读D篇题源文章（较真题内容有所删改）。

🤔️小作业：

A. The methods of estimation.

B. The underlying logic of the effect.

C. The causes of people's errors.

D. The design of Galton's experiment.

A. the crowds were relatively small.

B. there were occasional underestimates.

C. individuals did not communicate.

D. estimates were not fully independent.

A. The size of the groups.

B. The dominant members.

C. The discussion process.

D. The individual estimates.

A. Unclear. B. Dismissive.

C. Doubtful. D. Approving.

无注释原文：

No Man Is An Island: The Wisdom Of Deliberating Crowds

From: NPR

March 12, 2018

On March 7, 1907 , the English statistician Francis Galton published a peculiar observation.

At a county fair held in Plymouth, 800 visitors had participated in a competition to guess the weight of an ox. While most people's estimates were too high or too low — falling an average of 37 lbs. away from the true weight of 1,198 lbs. — the median of everyone's guess was off by only 9 lbs., or less than 1 percent of the true weight of the ox.

This example illustrates what has come to be known as the "wisdom of crowds" effect. In some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates can be quite accurate, even when the estimators have no special expertise.

"The average competitor," Galton wrote of the ox competition, "was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes."

The wisdom of crowds capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren't always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. That's why the effect benefits from a large and diverse "crowd." If people are similar in the sense that they tend to make the same errors, then their errors won't cancel each other out. A crowd with many overestimators will yield a global average that still falls too high; a crowd with many underestimators will yield a global average that still falls too low.

In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people's estimates be independent. Studies have found that when people can observe the estimates of others, the accuracy of the crowd typically goes down. People's errors become correlated or dependent, and are less likely to cancel each other out. We follow our peers, to the detriment of the performance of the group.

But a new paper offers an interesting twist on this classic phenomenon. When crowds are further subdivided into smaller "crowds" that are allowed to deliberate about the right answer, they not only succeed in overcoming the costs of introducing dependence, but even outperform the group as a whole.

The new paper, published last month in Nature Human Behavior and authored by Joaquin Navajas and colleagues, reports the results of a large-scale study of estimation. More than 4,000 people attending an event were asked to provide estimates for eight values, such as the height of the Eiffel Tower. They were then subdivided into groups of five estimators and encouraged to discuss half of the eight values to arrive at a consensus estimate for the group.

The key finding was that the averages from these "deliberating crowds" of five were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four deliberating groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals. In fact, averaging four deliberating groups resulted in a more accurate estimate than averaging 1,400 individual estimates.

These benefits were not observed for the estimated values that were not discussed by the group, so they somehow derived from the group-level process itself. But what, exactly, were the groups doing to achieve this impressive effect?

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the deliberating crowds actually did. Did they tend to go with the answers of those who were most confident about their estimates? Did they gravitate towards the answers of those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn't the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they "shared arguments and reasoned together." Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error, rather than introducing correlated errors that undermined the wisdom of crowds.

The new paper by Navajas and colleagues reports only two studies, one large and one small, and it focuses exclusively on estimates concerning trivia or general knowledge. As a result, many questions remain. But the potential implications for group decision-making and deliberation are enormous. If a small number of deliberating groups can outperform a much larger number of individuals, this suggests that procedures like "deliberative polling" could be a promising strategy for public and private communities to pursue.

Galton introduced his 1907 paper by noting that "[i]n these democratic days, any investigation into the trustworthiness and peculiarities of popular judgments is of interest."

- ◆ -

注：中文文本为机器翻译并非一一对应，仅供参考

含注释全文：

No Man Is An Island: The Wisdom Of Deliberating Crowds

From: NPR

March 12, 2018

On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a peculiar observation.

1907年3月7日，英国统计学家弗朗西斯·高尔顿（Francis Galton）发布了一项奇特的观察结果。

statistician /ˌstæt.ɪˈstɪʃ.ən/ 表示“统计学家；统计员”，英文解释为“someone who studies or is an expert in statistics”

peculiar /pɪˈkjuː.li.ər/ 表示“奇怪的，古怪的”，英文解释为“unusual and strange, sometimes in an unpleasant way”举个🌰：What a peculiar smell! 多么奇怪的气味！

At a county fair held in Plymouth, 800 visitors had participated in a competition to guess the weight of an ox. While most people's estimates were too high or too low — falling an average of 37 lbs. away from the true weight of 1,198 lbs. — the median of everyone's guess was off by only 9 lbs., or less than 1 percent of the true weight of the ox.

在普利茅斯一次县集市上，800人参与了猜测公牛体重的比赛。大多数人的估计要么过高，要么过低——与真实重量1198磅平均相差37磅。然而所有人猜测的中位数只偏离9磅，即不到公牛真实体重的1%。

county fair /ˌkaʊn.ti ˈfeər/ 表示“（美国每年夏季的）县集市”，英文解释为“a large public event that happens every summer in US counties, with rides, games, and competitions for the best animal, best cooked dish, etc.”

ox /ɒks/ 表示“公牛，阉牛；（泛指）牛”，英文解释为“a bull (= male cow) that has had its reproductive organs removed, used in the past for pulling heavy things on farms, or, more generally, any adult of the cattle family”

estimate /ˈes.tɪ.meɪt/ 可作名词也可以作动词，表示“估计；估算；估价”，英文解释为“a guess of what the size, value, amount, cost, etc. of something might be”如：a conservative (= low) estimate 保守估计，a rough (= not exact) estimate 粗略估计。

pound /paʊnd/ 表示“磅（重量单位）”，英文解释为“a unit for measuring weight”举个🌰：One pound is approximately equal to 454 grams. 1磅约等于454克。

📍pound的缩写为lb.

median /ˈmiː.di.ən/ 表示“中位数”，英文解释为“the value that is the middle one in a set of values arranged in order of size”

This example illustrates what has come to be known as the "wisdom of crowds" effect. In some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates can be quite accurate, even when the estimators have no special expertise.

这个例子生动地展示了所谓的“群体智慧”效应。在某些情况下，即使估算者没有特殊的专业知识，大量独立估计的平均值也可能相当准确。

illustrate /ˈɪl.ə.streɪt/ 表示“（尤指用例子）说明，阐明”，英文解释为“to show the meaning or truth of something more clearly, especially by giving examples”举个🌰：The lecturer illustrated his point with a diagram on the blackboard. 讲师在黑板上用图表来说明自己的观点。

表示“专门技能（知识）；专长”，英文解释为“a high level of knowledge or skill”举个🌰：We admired the expertise with which he prepared the meal. 我们很羡慕他那一手烹调绝活。

"The average competitor," Galton wrote of the ox competition, "was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes."

“普通参赛者，”高尔顿在谈到猜测公牛体重比赛时写道，“可能就像普通选民评判他所投票的大多数政治问题的优劣一样，很适合对公牛屠宰后重量做出正确估计。”

Dressed weight这个词语在畜牧业中指的是动物屠宰后去掉内脏、头部、皮和腿部后的体重。通常，这个体重用来衡量可用于食用的肉的量。在文中的上下文中，这个词语用于描述牛在被屠宰和加工后的重量。Dressed weight (also known as dead weight or carcass weight) refers to the weight of an animal after being partially butchered, removing all the internal organs and often the head as well as inedible (or less desirable) portions of the tail and legs.

表示“优点；价值；功绩”，英文解释为“the quality of being good and deserving praise”举个🌰：His book has the merit of being both informative and readable. 他的书兼具内容丰富和可读性强的特点。

The wisdom of crowds capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren't always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. That's why the effect benefits from a large and diverse "crowd." If people are similar in the sense that they tend to make the same errors, then their errors won't cancel each other out. A crowd with many overestimators will yield a global average that still falls too high; a crowd with many underestimators will yield a global average that still falls too low.

当人们犯错误时，这些错误并不总是相同的，这是群体智慧的基础。有些人倾向于高估，有些人倾向于低估。当足够多的这些误差被平均在一起时，它们就会相互抵消，从而得到更准确的估计。这就是为什么这种效应需要一个庞大而多样化的“群体”。如果如果在某种意义上人们是相似的，即倾向于犯同样的错误，那么错误就不会相互抵消。如果人群中有很多高估者，那么仍将产生偏高的全局平均值；如果人群中有很多低估者，那么全局平均值仍然过低。

表示“利用…获益；从…中获利；充分利用；借助于”，英文解释为“to use a situation to your own advantage”举个🌰：She capitalized on her knowledge and experience to get a better job. 她凭借自己的学识和经验谋求了一份收入更高的新工作。

表示“抵消；对消”，英文解释为“to remove the effect of one thing by doing another thing that has the opposite effect”举个🌰：This month's pay cheque will cancel out his debt, but it won't give him any extra money. 这个月的工资支票将抵消他的债务，可那样他就一点钱都不剩了。The advantages and disadvantages would appear to cancel each other out. 看来是利弊参半。

表示“多种多样的，形形色色的”，英文解释为“including many different types of people or things”举个🌰：New York is a very culturally/ethnically diverse city. 纽约是一个在文化/种族方面具有多样性的城市。

yield /jiːld/ 1）表示“出产（作物）；产生（收益、效益等）；提供”，英文解释为“to produce or provide sth, for example a profit, result or crop”举个🌰：Higher-rate deposit accounts yield good returns. 高利率的存款会产生丰厚的收益。

2）表示“（常指被迫）放弃，让出”，英文解释为“to give up the control of or responsibility for something, often because you have been forced to”举个🌰：Despite renewed pressure to give up the occupied territory, they will not yield. 尽管有新的压力要求放弃被占领的土地，他们就是不愿屈服。

In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people's estimates be independent. Studies have found that when people can observe the estimates of others, the accuracy of the crowd typically goes down. People's errors become correlated or dependent, and are less likely to cancel each other out. We follow our peers, to the detriment of the performance of the group.

用更专业的术语来说，群体智慧要求人们的估计是独立的。研究发现，当人们能够观察到他人的估计时，群体准确性通常会下降。人们的错误变得相互关联或依赖，并且不太可能相互抵消。我们跟随同伴，损害了群体的表现。

表示“相互关系；联系；相关”，英文解释为“If two or more facts, numbers, etc. correlate or are correlated, there is a relationship between them.”举个🌰：Stress levels and heart disease are strongly correlated (= connected). 压力程度和心脏病密切相关。

作动词，表示“仔细看，端详；费力地看”，英文解释为“to look carefully or with difficulty”举个🌰：When no one answered the door, she peered through the window to see if anyone was there. 没有人开门，她就费力地透过窗户朝里望去，看是否有人在。

作名词，表示“同龄人；同辈；同等社会地位（或能力）的人”，英文解释为“a person who is the same age or has the same social position or the same abilities as other people in a group”举个🌰：Do you think it's true that teenage girls are less self-confident than their male peers? 你是否认为十几岁的女孩子不如同年龄的男孩子自信？

detriment /ˈdet.rɪ.mənt/ 表示“危害，损害”，英文解释为“harm or damage”举个🌰：Are you sure that I can follow this diet without detriment to my health? 你能肯定我遵循这样的饮食不会有害健康吗？

But a new paper offers an interesting twist on this classic phenomenon. When crowds are further subdivided into smaller "crowds" that are allowed to deliberate about the right answer, they not only succeed in overcoming the costs of introducing dependence, but even outperform the group as a whole.

然而，一篇新的论文为这一经典现象带来了一个新角度。当人群进一步被细分为较小的“群体”，并允许他们就正确答案进行讨论时，他们不仅成功地克服了依赖性的负面影响，而且甚至比整个群体表现得更好。

表示“（故事或情况的）转折，转变，突然变化”，英文解释为“an unexpected change or development in a story or situation”，举个🌰：The story has taken another twist. 故事情节再一次变化。

subdivide /ˌsʌb.dɪˈvaɪd/ 表示“将…再分，将…细分”，英文解释为“to divide something into smaller parts”举个🌰：Each chapter is subdivided into smaller sections. 每一章又被细分为几个小节。

作动词，表示“仔细考虑；深思熟虑；反复思考”，英文解释为“to think very carefully about sth, usually before making a decision”举个🌰：The jury deliberated for five days before finding him guilty. 陪审团认真讨论了五天才裁定他有罪。

作形容词，表示“（常指坏事）有意的，故意的，蓄意的”，英文解释为“(often of something bad) intentional or planned”如：a deliberate attack/insult/lie 蓄意攻击/侮辱/说谎。

The new paper, published last month in Nature Human Behavior and authored by Joaquin Navajas and colleagues, reports the results of a large-scale study of estimation. More than 4,000 people attending an event were asked to provide estimates for eight values, such as the height of the Eiffel Tower. They were then subdivided into groups of five estimators and encouraged to discuss half of the eight values to arrive at a consensus estimate for the group.

上个月发表在《自然-人类行为》期刊上的这篇新论文由华金·纳瓦加斯（Joaquin Navajas）和他的同事撰写，报告了一项大规模评估研究的结果。参加活动的4000多人被要求对埃菲尔铁塔的高度等8个数值进行估计。然后，他们被细分为五人一组，并鼓励他们讨论其中四个值，以达成小组一致的估计值。

consensus /kənˈsen.səs/ 表示“一致的意见；共识”，英文解释为“a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people”举个🌰：The general consensus in the office is that he can't do his job. 办公室成员一致认为他无法胜任工作。

The key finding was that the averages from these "deliberating crowds" of five were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four deliberating groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals. In fact, averaging four deliberating groups resulted in a more accurate estimate than averaging 1,400 individual estimates.

关键的发现是，这些“讨论群体”由五个人组成，他们的平均值比同等数量独立个体的平均值更准确。例如，从四个五人讨论组的估计中获得的平均值明显比来自20个独立个体的平均值更准确。事实上，对四个讨论组求平均得到的估计值比对1,400个个体估计值求平均更准确。

These benefits were not observed for the estimated values that were not discussed by the group, so they somehow derived from the group-level process itself. But what, exactly, were the groups doing to achieve this impressive effect?

对那些没有经过小组讨论的估计值，这些优势并未体现，因此在某种程度上，优势来自于小组层面的讨论过程。但是，究竟是什么使得小组讨论取得了这种令人印象深刻的效果呢？

表示“从…中得到，从…中获得”，英文解释为“to get something from something else”举个🌰：She derives great pleasure from playing the violin. 拉小提琴能让她获得极大的乐趣。

📺英剧《唐顿庄园》（Downton Abbey）中的台词提到：Lord Gillingham thought Lady Mary might derive benefit from it. 吉利安姆子爵觉得玛丽小姐去参加一下有好处。

📍《经济学人》（The Economist）一篇讲述2020年诺贝尔经济学奖的文章中提到：Mr Milgrom (whose doctoral thesis was supervised by Mr Wilson) derived a number of important lessons from his analyses. 米尔格罗姆（威尔逊是他的博士论文导师）通过分析得出了许多重要经验。

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the deliberating crowds actually did. Did they tend to go with the answers of those who were most confident about their estimates? Did they gravitate towards the answers of those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn't the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they "shared arguments and reasoned together." Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error, rather than introducing correlated errors that undermined the wisdom of crowds.

在一项针对100名大学生的后续研究中，研究人员试图更好地了解讨论群体实际上做了什么。他们是否倾向于采纳那些对自己估计值最有信心的人的答案？他们是否被那些最不愿意改变主意的人的答案所吸引？这种情况偶尔会发生，但并非主导因素。最常见的是，这些小组报告说他们“分享论点，一起推理”。不知何故，这些论点和推理降低了全局误差，而不会引入相关误差，从而削弱群体智慧。

1）作名词，表示“后续行动；后续事物”，英文解释为“an action or a thing that continues sth that has already started or comes after sth similar that was done earlier”举个🌰：The book is a follow-up to her excellent television series. 这本书是继她的优秀电视系列片之后的又一力作。

2）也可作“形容词”表示“后续的；进一步的”。

gravitate /ˈɡræv.ɪ.teɪt/ towards/to sth/sb表示“吸引到；受吸引而转到”，英文解释为“to be attracted by or to move in the direction of something or someone”举个🌰：She always gravitates towards the older children in her playgroup. 她在幼儿游戏组里总是爱跟比她大的孩子玩。

1）表示“首要的；占支配地位的；占优势的；显著的”，英文解释为“more important, powerful or noticeable than other things”举个🌰：The firm has achieved a dominant position in the world market. 这家公司在国际市场上占有举足轻重的地位。

2）表示“（基因）显性的，优势的”，英文解释为“a dominant gene causes a person to have a particular physical characteristic, for example brown eyes, even if only one of their parents has passed on this  gene”。

🎬电影《王牌特工：特工学院》（Kingsman: The Secret Service）中的台词提到：but a Kingsman wears it on whichever hand happens to be dominant. 但王牌特工都戴在惯用手上。

argument /ˈɑːɡ.jə.mənt/ 除了表示“争论；争吵；争辩；争执”，英文解释为“a disagreement, or the process of disagreeing”还可以表示“理由，论据，论点；论证，说理”，英文解释为“a reason or reasons why you support or oppose an idea or suggestion, or the process of explaining these reasons”

reason /ˈriː.zən/ 作动词，表示“推理，推断；判断”，英文解释为“to try to understand and to make judgments based on practical facts”举个🌰：Newton reasoned (that) there must be a force such as gravity 牛顿推断出这一定是由于某种力的缘故，比如重力。

表示“（常指逐渐地）削弱信心、权威等，损害”，英文解释为“to make someone less confident, less powerful, or less likely to succeed, or to make something weaker, often gradually”举个🌰：Criticism just undermines their confidence. 批评只是削弱了他们的信心。

The new paper by Navajas and colleagues reports only two studies, one large and one small, and it focuses exclusively on estimates concerning trivia or general knowledge. As a result, many questions remain. But the potential implications for group decision-making and deliberation are enormous. If a small number of deliberating groups can outperform a much larger number of individuals, this suggests that procedures like "deliberative polling" could be a promising strategy for public and private communities to pursue.

纳瓦加斯及其同事的新论文只报告了大规模和小规模的两项研究，并且它关注于冷知识或常识的估计。因此，还有很多问题有待解决。但是，这对群体决策和讨论的潜在影响是巨大的。如果少量讨论组能够胜过大量个体，这意味着像“商议式民调”这样的程序可能是公共和私人社区应该追求的一种有前途的策略。

trivia /ˈtrɪv.i.ə/ 表示“琐事；细枝末节”，英文解释为“details or information that are not important”，也可以解释为“冷知识”（Trivia is unimportant facts or details that are considered to be amusing rather than serious or useful.）举个🌰：She has an encyclopedic knowledge of sports trivia. 她对体育运动的细枝末节无所不知。

1）表示“可能的影响（或作用、结果）”，英文解释为“a possible effect or result of an action or a decision”举个🌰：The development of the site will have implications for the surrounding countryside. 这个地点的开发将会影响周围的乡村。

2）表示“含意；暗指，暗示”，英文解释为“an occasion when you seem to suggest something without saying it directly”举个🌰：From what she said, the implication was that they were splitting up. 她的话中暗示他们将要分手。

outperform /ˌaʊt.pəˈfɔːm/ 表示“超过，胜过；比…做得好”，英文解释为“to do well in a particular job or activity compared to others of a similar type”举个🌰：The company has consistently outperformed its rivals this season. 这一季，这家公司的表现一直优于竞争对手。

Galton introduced his 1907 paper by noting that "[i]n these democratic days, any investigation into the trustworthiness and peculiarities of popular judgments is of interest."

高尔顿在1907年的论文中写道：“在这个民主的时代，任何对大众判断的可靠性和独特性的研究都是有意义的。”

peculiarity /pɪˌkjuː.liˈær.ə.ti/ 1）表示“古怪；奇异；怪癖”，英文解释为“the quality of being strange or unusual, or an unusual characteristic or habit”举个🌰：You couldn't help but be aware of the peculiarity of the situation. 你必然会意识到情况有些蹊跷。

2）表示“特点”，英文解释为“something that is typical of one person, group, or thing”举个🌰：This technique is applicable to a wide variety of crops, but some modifications may be necessary to accommodate the peculiarities of each type. 该项技术适用于多种作物，但可能需要根据每种作物的特点稍作改进。

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