陈楸帆欧洲行| 想象之道:如何缔造未来新型社会契约

著名科幻作家陈楸帆的《荒潮》《AI未来进行式》新出了德文和法文版。2023年9月底，陈楸帆受邀开启了他为期两个月的欧洲行，一路在意大利、西班牙、德国、比利时和法国等国家，参加了多场重磅国际交流活动，包括米兰设计三年展、Internazionale a Ferrara国际新闻节、法兰克福书展、Nonhuman Excellence、南特幻想节、欧洲独立智库“欧洲之友”的主题晚宴和高峰论坛、第六届巴黎和平论坛等，并受邀在爱舍丽宫参加了总统晚宴。

这次出行，陈楸帆不仅在欧洲宣传推广了极具中国文化气息的多部科幻作品，也与欧洲文化界和科技界的顶级学者和专家们，探讨了关于AI和环保的多个话题。其中，在11月14日欧洲独立智库“欧洲之友”高峰论坛上，陈楸帆做了名为《想象之道:如何缔造未来新型社会契约》的演讲，深受瞩目。 

（以下，就是陈楸帆的英文原稿，顾备翻译，由上海浦东新区科幻协会全国首发。）

The Dao of Imagination: How to envision a new social contract for a brighter future

想象之道:如何缔造未来新型社会契约

Qiufan CHEN 陈楸帆

By the keen insight of Amara's Law, states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Herein lies a fundamental cognitive asymmetry: the linear versus the non-linear, the short term against the long term, the familiar self in opposition to the estrange others. These binaries dance in our decisions, shaping our vision and strategy.

阿玛拉定律敏锐地提出，人们总是高估一项科技所带来的短期效益，却又低估它的长期影响。问题就在于，这是一种根本性的认知不对称：线性与非线性，短期与长期，熟悉的自我与疏离的他人相对立。这些左右着我们的决策，塑造着我们的愿景和战略。

Consider the anthropomorphization of technology – our innate tendency to bestow our creations with human attributes. We build robots and AI that mimic our form and functions, yet in this reflective act, we risk eclipsing the vast spectrum of non-human intelligence that thrives around us.

我们天生倾向于赋予我们的造物以人类本身的特质，考虑到这一点，科技产品也倾向于拟人化。我们所制造的机器人和人工智能，都在模仿我们人类的形态和功能，但在这种映射过程中，我们正面临风险：在我们周围，非人类智能广泛存在，然而，其蓬勃生机却被掩盖并被忽略了。

The flaw in our consciousness, the weakness, is not merely a philosophical musing. It shapes the societies we build, the policies we enact, and the futures we dream. And when these limitations are not just inherent, but deliberately manipulated and amplified by technology, the consequences can be dire. We are surrounded by algorithms that reinforce our biases, social media that magnifies our egos, and information silos that echo our narrowest views back at us and that’s what I call the making of “algorithmic slavery”.

我们意识中的缺陷，弱点，不仅仅是哲学意义上的一种思考。它塑造了我们的社会结构，左右了我们的政策制定，甚至定义了我们所梦想的未来。当这些局限性不仅是内在的，且被科技故意操纵和放大时，其后果可能是灾难性的。强化偏见的算法、放大自我的社交媒体，以及将那些最狭隘的观点不断反弹回来的信息孤岛，我们被这一切所包围，而这，就是我所说的“算法奴役”。

We must confront an unsettling divergence: the cognitive gap, which not only persists but widens, becoming a chasm divided along the fault lines of class, language, identity, and belief. This gap does not merely separate; it polarizes, creating echo chambers of ideology and fortresses of conviction that are impervious to the bridges of dialogue.

我们必须直面这样一个令人不安的分歧：认知差距不仅持续存在，且不断扩大，成为一条以阶级、语言、身份和信仰为划分，呈现出断层的鸿沟。这种差距不仅仅是割裂的，还呈两极化，形成了意识形态的回音室和固守信念的堡垒，仅凭对话和桥梁无法打破僵局。

The narratives birthed from these divisions are not idle tales; they are the frontlines of a modern warfare, one fought not with cannons and balloons, but with tweets and soundbites. In this warfare, an image, a phrase, a carefully crafted story can wield power to rally supporters or demonize opponents. Consider the hashtags that become battle cries, the viral misinformation campaigns that shift elections, or the deepfakes that sow distrust. These are the weapons of narrative warfare, sharpened on the whetstone of cognitive gaps.

从这些分歧中所产生的叙事并不是无聊的故事，他们是现代战争的前线：战争并非大炮和气球，而是以推特和摘要的形式进行的。在这场战争中，一个形象、一段措辞、一个精心策划的故事，都可以彰显威力，或者团结支持者，或者妖魔化对手。想想那些成为战斗口号的标签，在竞选过程中以病毒式传播改变选举结果的错误信息，或者那些散播不信任的深度谎言。这些都是叙事战的武器，在认知鸿沟的磨刀石上磨砺而成。

In such a world, the global cooperation necessary to address the existential challenges we face becomes not just difficult, but perhaps impossible.

The ultimate tragedy, the specter that haunts our every decision, is the potential for planetary collapse.

在这样的世界里，要想应对我们所面临的生存挑战就需要全球合作，然而这种合作却变得不仅困难，甚至，或许是不可能的。整个行星或将分崩离析，这种终极悲剧如同幽灵般萦绕在我们脑际，困扰着我们的每一次抉择。

Climate change gnaws at the edges of our continents, melting ice, and kindling wildfires. Species vanish from the Earth. And at the heart of it all is the polarization and conflict of human values, the rift that turns potential allies into adversaries, collaboration into zero sum competition.

气候变化侵蚀着我们的大陆边缘，融化了冰层，点燃了野火。物种接连从地球上灭绝。这一切的核心却是人类价值观的两极分化和冲突，这道裂痕将潜在的盟友变成了对手，将合作变成了零和竞争。

The Doomsday Clock ticks ever closer to midnight.Is there any antidote we can take to detoxicate our civilization? The answer might not be as absurd as it sounds. 

末日钟声越来越接近午夜，又有何解药可为我们的文明解毒？答案或许并不像听起来的那么荒谬。

In weaving the rich tapestry of our future, let us consider the Daoist philosophy and its profound symbolism of water — an element that is soft yet strong, yielding yet persistent. The art of Wu Wei, or 'effortless action,' which encourages a form of being that flows in accordance with the natural order of things, much like water carves its path not through force but through its persistent, gentle touch.

当编织五彩的未来时，让我们尝试采纳道家哲学及其对水极富象征意义的深刻理解——水至柔而至刚，顺势而持久。无为之道，或称“无所为”，是鼓励一切顺应自然，就像水滴石穿并不靠蛮力，而是通过持久而温和的冲刷来开山辟路。

This philosophy can profoundly inform the cultivation of our imagination. Just as water coexists with all it encounters — nourishing plants, shaping landscapes, and adapting to containers — our imagination must also practice thus. In our creative endeavors, whether in art, literature, technology, or governance, we must allow our imagination to flow around the obstacles of traditional thinking, to find new paths like rivulets in rock, and to settle and expand like pools in a valley. And the new social contract might emerge.

这种哲学可以极其深刻地影响想象力的养成。正如水，善利万物而不争，无论遇到什么都可以共存——滋养植物、打造地貌、充盈任何形状的容器——我们也必须按照这种方法去锻炼自己的想象力。在我们努力寻求创意的时候，无论是艺术、文学、科技，还是治理，我们都必须让自己的想象力绕过传统思维模式的障碍，就如同岩间溪流找寻新的通路，像谷中池水汇聚成湖。如此，就有可能出现新型社会契约。

To imagine a new kind of social contract, we must begin by cultivating a profound compassion for diverse values. This is not a mere tolerance but an active engagement with the kaleidoscope of human beliefs, traditions, and perspectives. Compassion in this context becomes the crucible within which we can melt down the barriers of misunderstanding that fuel our narrative warfare. By fostering an environment where diverse values are not just acknowledged but celebrated, we open the door to previously unimaginable solutions to our planetary crises. Value-led investment and policy making becomes a must.

要想象一种全新的社会契约，我们就必须从培养对不同价值观的深刻同情开始。这不仅仅是宽容，而是积极地去理解，由人类不同信仰、传统和观点构成的万花筒。在这样的背景下，同情成为了熔炉，以供我们在其中消融误解所带来的隔阂，正是这些隔阂为我们的叙事战争火上浇油。我们要营造一种环境，不仅认可而且欢迎各种不同的价值观，通过这种方法，就可以打开一扇以前难以想象的大门，为全球危机找到解决方案。价值导向的投资和政策制定将成为必要条件。

To imagine a new kind of social contract, we must accept that human will not be the only intelligence species of the planet. This Copernican revolution of anthropocentric perspective not only allow us to create a more inclusive and holistic modeling of the complex ecosystem. Also encouraging a symbiotic existence rather than a zero-sum game, brutal social Darwinism and hierarchical oppression of others. An AI with such a philosophy would be designed not to dominate but to support and enhance the natural flow of human progress and environmental balance. It would learn to 'be water,' to adapt and change shape as needed, to cleanse and to give life, rather than to control or to take. This harmonious AI could assist us in crafting solutions that transcend binary thinking, helping to dismantle the destructive hierarchies that have plagued our species for long.

要想象一种全新的社会契约，我们就必须接受，人类不会是这个星球上唯一的智慧物种。这种推翻以人类为中心的哥白尼式革命，不仅使我们能够对复杂的生态系统进行更具包容性和整体性的建模，也鼓励共生共存，而不是零和游戏、残酷的社会达尔文主义或对他人的等级压迫。具备此种哲思的人工智能或将被设计出来，不是为了支配和控制，而是支撑和强化“水流的自然之法”，在人类发展与环境平衡之间，寻求解决之“道”。它将学会如何“成为水”，去适应环境，并根据需要改变形态，去净化，去赋予生命，而非控制或索取。这种和谐的人工智能可以帮助我们制定解决方案，超越二元对立思维范式，协助打破长期困扰我们的极具破坏性的等级制度。

To imagine a new kind of social contract, our consensus must be rooted in the reality that our fates are intertwined, that the well-being of one is inseparably linked to the well-being of all.  NOT IN MY BACK YARD principle will never be an option. We must imagine a world where green policies are not seen as sacrifices, but as investments in our collective future, as opportunities for innovation and growth. This new social contract would prioritize green initiatives at the policy level, incentivize sustainable practices in business and industry, and cultivate a culture that values environmental stewardship as a fundamental civic duty. Also as the cornerstone of education, teaching our children not just the science of sustainability, but the philosophy of it. By fostering a generation that not only understands the importance of a green society but also feels its intrinsic value. Our tools are not just the hard sciences of ecology，policies and economics, but also the soft power of art, literature, and philosophy, which can touch hearts and change minds.

要想象一种全新的社会契约，我们的共识必须植根于这样一个现实：我们的命运交织在一起，一个人的福祉与所有人的福祉密不可分。“各扫门前雪”永远不会是一个可选项。我们必须想象在那个全新的世界，环保政策不再被视为牺牲，而是对我们未来命运共同体的投资，是创新和增长的机会。这项新的社会契约将在政策层面优先考虑环保倡议，在商业和工业中激励可持续实践，并培养将环境管理视为基本公民义务的文化。同样，作为教育的基石，我们不仅要教会孩子可持续发展的科学，还要教会他们可持续发展的哲学。我们要培养下一代，不仅能够理解环保社会的重要性，还要能够感受环保社会的内在价值。我们的工具不仅仅是生态学、政策学和经济学这类硬科学，还有艺术、文学和哲学这些软实力，它们可以打动人心，改变思想。

As a story-teller, my conviction runs deep, and through tales spun in works like "Waste Tide”, a novel about electronic waste crisis and climate inequality in China, and "AI2041: Ten Visions for Our Future," a mixed of fictions and non-fiction about human-AI symbiosis society from a global perspective, I actively craft this belief into existence.

作为一名讲故事的人，我的信念根深蒂固，通过嵌入作品的一个个故事，我积极地将这种信念一步步打造成现实。正如《荒潮》，就是一个讲述中国电子垃圾危机和气候不平等的小说；而《AI未来进行式》（AI2041: Ten Visions for Our Future）则混杂了小说和非虚构作品，从全球角度讲述了人类与人工智能的共生社会。

The Dao of imagination is not a passive daydream; it is an active force, a way of being that can lead us toward a more enlightened existence. By embracing compassion for diverse values, championing the co-existence of all beings, and forging a new consensus for a green society, we align ourselves with the profound wisdom of the Gaia hypothesis. It would be a contract that recognizes the Earth as a living complex system, whose health is inseparable from our own. signed with the ink of our highest aspirations for the planet and all its inhabitants. We become not just stewards of the Earth but part of its consciousness, a planetary intelligence that can guide us toward a future where the survival of one is the success of all.

想象之道并非被动的白日梦；而是一种积极的力量，生存之道可以引导我们走向更加开明的生存之法。对不同的价值观报以同情之心，捍卫所有生命共存的权利，为打造环保社会而达成新的共识，藉此，我们与盖亚假说深邃的智慧达成一致。这将是一份契约，承认地球是个复杂的生命系统，其健康与我们自身的健康密不可分，而我们将以地球及其所有居民的最高愿望为墨，签署这个契约。我们不仅是地球的守护者，更成为其意识的一部分，一种行星级智慧，引导我们走向一个未来，在那里，个体的生存即是整体的成功。

Please allow me to finish with the lyric from John Lennon’s Imagine:

You may say I am a dreamer, but I am not the only one. I hope someday you’ll join us. And the world will live as one.

Thank you.

最后，请允许我以约翰·列侬那首《Imagine》中的歌词结尾：

谢谢。