IT IS easy to be downcast about the state of global trade. It has faced stiff headwinds in recent years: in 2016, for the first time in 15 years, it grew more slowly than the world economy. Regional and global trade deals are going nowhere, slowly. And America’s new president has promised to protect his country from trade-inflicted “carnage”.

现在很容易就会对全球贸易的形势感到沮丧。近年来，全球贸易一直面临严峻的压力：2016年是全球贸易在近15年以来首次出现增长低于全球经济的一年。区域贸易和全球贸易的交易增长乏力，非常缓慢。美国新上台的总统曾承诺不会让美国遭受巨额贸易赤字“打击”。

Amid all this gloom, optimism seems foolhardy. But in Asia’s export dynamos, trade is picking up steam. In January, Chinese exports rose year-on-year for the first time in ten months; South Korean shipments have increased for three months in a row. Surveys reveal strong export pipelines in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan. Healthy order books for Asia’s manufacturers normally bode well for global trade and indeed the global economy. It is too soon to declare a definitive upturn in global trade, but it looks like more than a blip.

在势态不明朗情形下，保持乐观态度是不明智的。可是，亚洲的出口贸易却逆势而上。1月，中国出口实现了10个月里首次出现了同比增长；韩国货运连续三个月增长。有一些调查发现，日本、新加坡和台湾地区的出口显现强劲势头。流向亚洲制造业的订单通常表明全球贸易以及全球经济的良好状态。现在要确定全球贸易有明显上升趋势还太早，不过，它更多地是一种信号。

The simplest explanation for the rebound is that global demand is itself on solid ground. Global growth is still slower than before the financial crisis of 2008, but is heading in the right direction. Both the IMF and the World Bank think it will speed up a bit this year. Investors have turned more bullish: the MSCI all-world index, which covers 46 different markets, hit a record high this week. The rebound in Asian exports is more reason for bullishness.

要简单地解释这种反弹形势，就是全球需求有稳定的基础。全球经济增长仍然低于2008年金融危机之前，不过，趋势是积极的。IMF和世界银行都认为今年的经济增速会加快。投资者都转为看多：涵盖了46个不同设成的MSCI全球指数在本周达到历史新高。亚洲出口的反弹形势更有理由看多。

Structural changes may also be at play in Asia. A much-cited factor behind the slowdown in global trade in recent years has been China’s tightening grip on complex supply chains. As more production takes place inside a single country, fewer cross-border transactions are needed to produce final goods. Yet this consolidation within China is starting to meet more friction. China is still aiming for a bigger share of high-tech industries, but less-developed countries in Asia are scooping up more of its low-end manufacturing, and wealthier markets are also fighting back. Over the last nine months of 2016, China’s export performance trailed the rest of Asia.

亚洲的产业结构性变化产生作用。有一个频繁提及的因素，即近年来全球贸易减缓是由于中国加强了对各大供应链的管控。当生产环节更多地存在一个单一市场时，成品生产的跨境交易数量就会减少。然而，在中国境内的生产链整合开始出现了松动。虽然中国仍然希望扩大高科技行业的市场份额，不过，亚洲欠发达国家正在攫取更多的低端制造业，发达市场也在不断抢市场。在2016年后几个月，中国出口与整个亚洲出口持平。

Nevertheless, there are good reasons to restrain the optimism. The rebound in exports from Asia’s commodity producers such as Indonesia and Malaysia is mainly the result of higher prices for oil and metals. Growth in their trade volumes has been much slower. For Asia’s high-tech economies, the rebound’s durability hinges on the fickle tastes of consumers. Both Samsung and Apple are expected to launch shiny new gadgets this year. Semiconductor makers around the region have gone into overdrive in anticipation. If demand falls short of expectations, exports of electronics will quickly dive again.

尽管如此，市场有理由保持乐观的态度。印度尼西来和马来西亚等亚洲大宗商品生产商的出口反弹形势主要来自石油和金属原材料的价格上涨。这些国家的贸易量增长一直都非常低。对于亚洲高科技经济体，出口反弹的持久性一直随着消费者飘忽不定的需求而变化。三星和苹果预计会在本年度推出新款电子产品。亚洲的半导体厂商预计已是超速运转。如果需求低于预期，电子产品的出口会很快再次下滑。

And looming large over all these trends is Donald Trump. Fears that he might declare China a currency manipulator in his first few days in office came to naught. But his threats during the election campaign to slap heavy tariffs on Chinese products still linger in the background. A trade war would be unwelcome at any time. If it came just when the world was breaking free from a long slump in global trade, the irony would be all the more cruel.

在这些趋势中，一个很大的不明朗因素就是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普。他在上台不久就宣布中国为货币操作控国的担忧烟消云消了。不过，他在总统竞选期间要对中国产品加重税的威胁仍然挥之不去。贸易战在任何时候都不受欢迎。如果在全球正在从长期萎靡的全球贸易中破冰前行之际出现贸易战，这种讽刺是最为残酷的。

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人