RESIDENTS have found something else to blame for the toxic smog that envelops many Chinese cities for much of the year. Until recently the culprits that were usually fingered were the obvious ones: emissions from coal-fired power plants, exhaust fumes from cars and dust from building sites. This year, however, reports began to appear in state-run media that climate change is now reckoned to be a factor, too. Chinese scientists say that in eastern China global warming is resulting in less rain and wind to clear the pollutants. The government’s weather bureau illustrated its online account of the discovery with a picture of zombie-looking figures in hazmat suits shrouded by haze.

中国市民们发现，长期笼罩中国多个城市的有毒雾霾另有原因。一直以来，人们通常都认为造成雾霾的原因显而易见：火力发电厂、机车尾气和建筑工地烟尘。然而，今年官方媒体开始报道称，气候变化现也被认为是原因之一。中国科学家们称，全球气候变暖导致中国东部地区雨水和风力减少，污染物难以清除。中国气象部门在网上用一张图片解释了这项发现，图片上人们在雾霾天里穿着防护服，状似僵尸。

America’s president, Donald Trump, may have little interest in climate change: Wilbur Ross, his commerce secretary, said the subject was “not a major part of the discussion” when Mr Trump met his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, earlier this month. But in China the government, and increasingly the public, see it as a real danger, responsible for rising sea levels that threaten coastal cities as well as for aggravating droughts in the north, floods in the south and, as it now turns out, the omnipresent smog. Some people wonder whether Mr Trump’s indifference might reduce China’s willingness to take action against climate change. Why bother if the second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases appears to have lost faith in the cause? Fortunately, there is no sign that China, the biggest emitter, is wavering.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能对气候变化兴趣缺缺。4月早些时候，特朗普与中国国家主席习近平在弗罗里达的海湖庄园（Mar-a-Lago）会晤时，商务部长威尔伯·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）曾表示，这个话题“并非谈话重点”，但中国政府和民众越来越多地认识到，气候变化非常危险，会造成海平面上升，进而威胁沿海城市，加重中国北部的干旱和南部的洪水，并导致多个地区产生雾霾。一些人担心，特朗普对气候变化的冷漠态度是否会减少中国采取行动应对气候变化的热情？毕竟如果世界第二大温室气体排放国都对此漠不关心，中国又何必采取措施呢？幸运的是，世界温室气体排放最多的国家中国还没有显示出动摇的迹象。

There was a time when it might have. Less than a decade ago China was dragging its feet, believing that the West was trying to use climate change as an excuse to impose policies that would harm China’s economy. In 2009 China’s intransigence was one of the main reasons why UN-led climate-change talks in Copenhagen failed to make much progress. But by the time of the UN’s climate-change conference in Paris in 2015, much had changed. Li Shuo, a Beijing-based policy adviser for Greenpeace, says China was one of the “major driving forces” behind the consensus that was forged at the meeting.

然而，中国曾经一度对气候变化表现漠然。就在不到十年前，中国曾在气候变化问题上拖拖拉拉，认为西方试图以气候变化为借口，逼迫中国采取一些对其经济不利的政策。2009年，中国的不让步，很大程度上导致了联合国主导的哥本哈根气候变化会谈失败，但2015年联合国气候变化会议在巴黎召开时，中国做出了极大的改变。位于绿色和平（ Greenpeace）北京分部的政策顾问李硕称，中国是背后推动达成会议共识的“主要动力”。

For China’s leaders, the reasons why they changed their minds remain just as valid today. Officials still worry about the huge build-up of debt and damage to the environment that have accompanied years of breakneck growth (citizens’ complaints about polluted air, water and soil have been fuelling social unrest). The government now wants the economy to be less reliant on manufacturing that requires a lot of polluting energy, and less driven by massive investment in construction. This will involve using less coal, which in turn will help clear the air as well as reduce climate-changing emissions of carbon.

至于中国领导人改变想法的原因，如今依然有理可循：官员们仍然担忧，以往数年极快的经济增长，造成了堆积如山的债务和环境破坏（市民们都在抱怨空气、水和土壤污染，助长了社会不安）。如今，政府希望经济能减少对需要大量污染能源的制造业的依赖，减少建筑业大量投资对经济的推动力。这意味着减少煤炭使用，相应地将有助于讲话空气，以及降低造成气候变化的碳排放量。

The government is spooked by an accumulation of research showing just how vulnerable the country is to damage caused by climate change. A study published in 2013 by the World Bank and the OECD concluded that economic losses in Guangzhou, in southern China, would be greater than in any other city in the world. In 2015 the government’s chief meteorologist warned of “serious threats” to China’s rivers, food supplies and infrastructure as a result of global warming, which he said had been greater than the global average.

一系列调查表明气候变化会对国家造成很大破坏，中国政府对这一研究结果十分重视。2013年，由世界银行（the World Bank）和经济合作和发展组织（OECD）进行的一项研究得出结论称，中国南部城市广州的经济损失，将超过世界任何其他城市。2015年，中国政府主要气候学家研警告称，中国多条河流面临着“严重威胁”，他称全球气候变暖对中国食物供给和基础设施的影响程度，将大于世界平均水平。

China sees diplomatic benefit, too, in hanging tough on climate change. It talks of the “soft power” it won by pushing for the agreement in Paris. Shortly before Mr Trump’s inauguration in January, Mr Xi told a gathering of the world’s elite in Davos, Switzerland, that all signatories should stick to the Paris accord “instead of walking away from it”—a poke at Mr Trump that his audience applauded. Also that month China’s climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, ventured that his country was “capable of taking a leadership role in combating global climate change.” China is reluctant to stick its neck out in negotiations on global warming, but it enjoys the kudos of leading by example.

中国还认为，对气候变化的坚持态度也有利于其外交。中国称，巴黎气候协定的达成，展现了中国的“软实力”。一月特朗普上台前不久，习近平在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界领导人集会中谈到，所有气候协定的缔约国应该恪守巴黎协定，“不能轻言放弃”——让特朗普难堪的是，这番话赢得了在场观众的掌声。同样在一月份，中国气候大使谢振华称，“在对抗全球气候变化的问题上，中国有能力起到领导作用”。中国不愿意在全球变暖的协商中冒险行事，但乐于带头给其他国家做出榜样。

Chinese officials are blessed by the absence of a domestic lobby that questions climate change and its causes. “People generally see the urgency” of the problem, says Mr Li of Greenpeace, a lobby group. But there are powerful vested interests that resist carbon-cutting measures. Take the steel industry. It is heavily polluting and a huge consumer of coal-produced energy. The central government says it wants to cut steel production, but some local authorities have been ignoring its orders, partly because of the risk of protests by laid-off workers. Output of the metal still exceeds domestic demand by about one-seventh, or 100m tonnes a year.

中国国内还未出现质疑气候变化及其产生原因的游说团体，这对中国官员们来说是件幸事。游说团体绿色和平的成员李先生说道，“人们大体都能认识到事态的急迫性”，但不乏由于有些不容忽视的利益关系，而抵制减少碳排放措施的行为。以污染严重、消耗大量煤炭能源的钢铁行业为例。中央政府想要减少钢铁生产，但一些地方当局却一直对这项指令视而不见，这一定程度上是因为担心失业的钢铁工人会抗议。金属的产量仍超过国内需求量的1/7，即每年一亿吨钢铁产量。

But the government is succeeding in cutting the use of coal, which provides around 70% of China’s electricity. In 2016 coal consumption dropped by 4.7%, the third successive year of decline (see chart). Many experts now believe it reached its peak in 2013, several years before even the most optimistic of them had been predicting. Greenpeace forecasts that this year will be China’s fourth successive one with flat or falling emissions of carbon dioxide.

然而，中国政府成功地减少了煤炭使用量。中国大约70%电能是靠煤炭提供的，2016煤炭使用量减少了4.7%，连续第三年实现使用量降低（见表格）。现在许多专家认为，煤炭使用量在2013年已达到峰值，这比之前最乐观的估计还要早好几年。绿色和平组织预计，今年中国将连续第四年实现二氧化碳排放量将持平或降低。

China also hopes to profit from developing green technology that it can sell globally. It is investing huge sums in it. In January it announced plans to spend 2.5trn yuan ($360bn) by 2020 on new generating capacity using renewable or low-carbon sources, including solar, wind, hydroelectric and nuclear plants. It says this will create 13m jobs and mean that half of the new capacity built between 2016 and 2020 will be renewable or nuclear (although China’s record in attaching wind and solar farms to the grid has been less impressive than its rapid building of them).

中国还希望能发展绿色科技，向全球销售以从中获利。中国对绿色科技投入巨大。一月，中国宣布2020年以前，将计划投入2.5万亿元（3600亿美元），用于使用可再生或低碳能源的发电产能，这些能源包括太阳能、风能、水能以及核能。据称，这将会创造一千三百万份工作，并且意味着，2016至2020年间新产生的电能中，半数将会是来源于可再生能源或核能（尽管中国建设电网的速度飞快，但电网在使用风能和太阳能的农场中的应用却稍显逊色）。

The country is eager to experiment with other ways of reducing greenhouse gases. Later this year it plans to launch a nationwide carbon-trading scheme, mainly for heavy industries. It is also mulling the introduction of a carbon tax. The public will cheer: less carbon spewed into the air should mean less smog. “We will make our skies blue again,” pledged the prime minister, Li Keqiang, last month. He is mindful of potential unrest if China doesn’t. His resolve might help the planet, too.

中国仍渴望尝试其他途径，以减少温室气体排放。今年晚些时候，中国计划实行全国碳交易方案，主要针对重工业。同时，中国还计划对碳排放收税。民众将对此欢心不已：碳排放越少，雾霾越少。李克强总理3月份时曾做出承诺要“坚决打好蓝天保卫战”。他意识到，如果中国不这样做，可能将引发潜在的不安。这份决心可能也能帮助地球打好蓝天保卫战。

编译：赵若蝉

审校：王艺澄

编辑：钦君

来源：经济学人