NO STATEMENT from the Federal Reserve is complete without a promise to make decisions based on the data. In each of the past two years, a souring outlook for the world economy prompted the Fed to delay interest-rate rises. And quite right, too. Yet if the Fed raises rates on June 14th in the face of low inflation, as it has strongly hinted, it would bring into question its commitment both to the data and also to its 2% inflation target.

美联储发布的每一份通告中，都会承诺所有的决策都有数据依据。过去两年里，全球经济不景气促使美联储延迟加息。这一决策是正确的。不过，在低通胀环境下，美联储如果按其强烈暗示的，要在6月14日加息，就会招致外界对其基于数据所做出决定以及实现2%通胀目标的质疑。

The central bank has raised rates three times since December 2015 (the latest rise came in March). It is good that monetary policy is a little tighter than it was back then. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is lower than at any time since early 2001. A broad range of earnings data shows a modest pickup in wage growth. The Fed is right to think that it is better to slow the economy gradually than be forced to bring it to a screeching halt later, if wage and price rises get out of hand. The rate increases to date have been reasonable insurance against an inflationary surge.

2015年12月以来，美联储有三次加息（最近一次在今年3月）。货币政策相比之前有所紧缩是好事。美国的失业率为4.3%，达到2001年以来最低。大范围的居民收入数据显示薪资增长呈现温和上升状态。美联储认为，一旦对薪资和物价上涨情况失去控制，与其以后被迫促使经济停滞，还不如让让经济逐渐放缓。这种观点没有错。目前为止，美联储加息是一种理性保障手段，防范通胀率大幅上涨。

But no such surge has yet struck. Unexpectedly low inflation in both March and April has left consumer prices no higher than they were in January. According to the Fed’s preferred index, core inflation—that is, excluding volatile food and energy prices—has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% earlier this year. It is now well below the 2% target.

不过，尚未出现通胀率大幅上涨的情况。没有预料到的是，三四月份的低通胀率造成消费价格并没有高过一月份。据美联储倾向的指数，核心通货膨胀率——即排除易波动的食品和能源价格——从今年年初的1.8%下跌至1.5%，目前远低于2%的目标。

Nor does a surge seem imminent. For a while, Donald Trump’s promises to cut taxes and spend freely on infrastructure made higher rates appear all the wiser. But fiscal stimulus looks less likely by the week. Tax cuts are stuck in the legislative queue behind health-care reform, and Mr Trump’s administration has tied itself in knots over whether it will increase the deficit. Meanwhile, the current “infrastructure week” in Washington may generate more headlines than proper plans.

此外，通胀率也没有上涨的迹象。唐纳德·特朗普承诺减税以及对基础设施建设大笔投入，这使得上调利率的措施显得更为明智。不过，本周内不太可能出台财政刺激政策。减税在立法优先度上位列医改之后，同时，特朗普政府也陷于是否增加财政赤字的困境中。同时，在华盛顿举行的“基础设施建设周”有可能会发布的会是更多的重磅消息，却不会是预期的规划。

Even so, the Fed is expected to go ahead and raise rates this month. The markets think there is a 90% probability of an increase of 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point).

即便如此，美联储预计会按步就班地在本月加息。市场认为美联储有90%的可能性加息25个基点（0.01个百分点）。

It is possible that more inflation is coming. An economy that is stimulated will eventually overheat. The central bank may believe that low unemployment is about to cause inflation. But the truth is that nobody is sure how far unemployment can fall before prices and wages soar. Not many years ago some rate-setters put this “natural” rate of unemployment at over 6%; the median rate-setter’s estimate is now 4.7%.

通货膨胀有可能即将上涨。受到量宽刺激的经济最终会发展过快。美联储也许相信低失业率将导致通货膨胀。不过，事实上，没人确信在物价和薪水飙升之前，失业率能下降多少。就在前几年，美联储官员的将失业率的“自然”比率定为6%以上；现在他们估值的中位数是4.7%。

The only way to find the labour market’s limits is to feel them out. Falling inflation and middling wage growth both suggest that these limits are some way off, for two possible reasons. First, higher wage growth could yet tempt more of the jobless to seek work (those who are not actively job-hunting do not count as unemployed). The proportion of 25- to 54-year-olds in employment is lower than before the recession, by an amount representing almost 2.4m people. By this measure, which fell in May, joblessness is worse in America than in France, where the overall unemployment rate stands at 9.5%. Second, even the moderate pickup in wage growth to date might encourage firms to invest more, lifting productivity out of the doldrums and dampening inflationary pressure.

找到劳动力市场上限的唯一方法是不断试探。通胀率下降和适中的薪水涨幅都表明，这些上限有很大距离，可能的原因有二。首先，薪水涨幅加大可能尚未诱使更多的失业者寻求工作机会（那些寻找工作意识不大的人没有的算入失业人数之中）。25岁到54岁就业者的占比较经济衰退之前还要低，大约减少了240万人。通过这种计算方法，美国5月的就业人数占比有所下降，无工作人数比法国的情况更糟糕——法国的整体失业率为9.5%。其次，目前薪水增长呈现温和上升也许会激励企业加大投资，提升生产率，摆脱经济困境，并抵抗通胀率压力。

I like hike

我喜欢大幅上涨

Jobs growth in America has already slowed from a monthly average of 187,000 in 2016 to 121,000 in the past three months. That is enough to reduce slack in the economy, but only just. Slowing it still further is needless so long as inflation remains quiescent. It makes still less sense when you consider the asymmetry of risks before the Fed. If tighter money tips the economy into recession, the central bank has only a little bit of room to cut rates before it hits zero. But if inflation rises, it can raise them as much as it likes.

美国工作岗位增加趋于放缓，从2016年月均增长18.7万降至过去三个月的12.1万，足以减轻美国经济的清淡状态，但仅此而已。只要通胀率维持不变，就没有必要进一步放缓经济，考虑美联储面临的风险不对称风险也没有多大意义。如果更为紧缩的货币政策会使得经济陷入衰退，那么美联储在零利率为零之上还是有一小些下调利率的空间的。不过，一旦通胀率上升，美联储就能尽情地上调利率了。

This asymmetry of risks extends to the Fed’s credibility. Inflation has been below 2% for 59 of the 63 months since the target was announced in January 2012. Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank’s commitment to it than modest overshoots would.

风险不对称问题会对美联储的公信力造成压力。自2012年1月通胀率目标公布以来，在63个月中，有59个月的通胀率位于2%以下。相比稍微做过头，如果继续达不到目标，公众将更多怀疑美联储的诚信。

For too long, hawks have made excuses for the persistence of low inflation. The latest is to blame new contracts offering unlimited amounts of mobile data, as if cheaper telecommunications somehow should not count. The Fed should keep its promise to base its decisions on the data, and leave interest rates exactly where they are.

长期以来，美联储中的鹰派为保持低利率而找了各种借口。最近的借口是把责任推给了提供不限量移动数据的新合约上，似乎更廉价的电信费用不应计算在内。美联储应该信守承诺，基于数据做决定，维持利率现有水平。

编译：张思莹

编辑：翻吧君

英文来源：经济学人