SOMETIMES the markets are genuinely surprised. On the morning of April 18th, news that the British prime minister was to make an announcement at 11.15am caused the pound to dip. What could the news be? Retirement due to ill health? Several pundits went on Twitter to proclaim their belief that it would not be an early election; after all, Theresa May, the prime minister, has said repeatedly that the poll would not occur until 2020. But the news was indeed that an election will happen on June 8th. The pound then stormed higher and is now more than $1.28, around its strongest level this year (but well below the $1.50 touched on the day of the Brexit referendum).

英镑的上涨确实超过了市场预期。4月18日上午，英国首相特蕾莎·梅在上午11点15分发表声明的消息造成了英镑的下跌。这一消息会是什么？因身体抱恙而去辞？一些专家在推特上预测道，这一消息不会是提前大选，毕竟特蕾莎·梅多次重复2020年之前不会提前举行选举。但是，这一消息确实是6月8日将举行大选。消息一出，英镑兑美元汇率几乎逆势跳涨到今年最高值1.28（但未达到脱欧公投当天的1.5）。

So what explains the switcharound? The hope is that the election will lead to a softer Brexit result and thus be better news for the British economy. Deutsche Bank, previously bearish on sterling, was the most prominent convert to this view.

是什么造成了这一转变？人们认为提前大选会实现软脱欧，对英国经济有利。甚至连一贯看跌英镑的德意志银行也迅速转变立场。

"First, it makes the deadline to deliver a “clean” Brexit, without a lengthy transitional arrangement, by 2019 far less pressing given that no general election will be due the year after. Second, it will dilute the influence of MPs pushing for hard Brexit, strengthening the government’s domestic political position and allowing earlier compromise over key EU demands for a transitional arrangement. Third, it strengthens the PM’s overall negotiating stance who in recent weeks has clearly fallen in line with the European approach. This will involve a settlement of the Brexit payments and other divorce aspects first to be followed by a lengthy transitional period during which the final outcome of Brexit will emerge. This sequenced approach materially reduces the “crash risk” of Brexit negotiations and…reduces downside risks for the UK growth outlook."

"首先，英国“彻底”脱欧指日可待。若大选在2020年正常举行，那么到达2019年设定的脱欧期限还要经历一段漫长的过渡期。其次，提前大选可以冲淡国会议员的硬脱欧策略，提升本届英国政府在国内的政治地位，就欧盟针对过渡期安排的关键诉求尽快达成协商。最后 ，鉴于此前几周特蕾莎·梅在脱欧方式上受到的限制，此举可以提升特蕾莎·梅在脱欧谈判中的影响力。这将涉及在漫长的过渡期之后有关英国脱欧的费用以及其他相关问题，而在过渡期里，英国脱欧所付出的代价将全面显现出来。上述的脱欧方式会降低脱欧谈判的“撞车风险”……减轻脱欧对英国未来发展的负面影响。

This may turn out to be right but it is quite a bold call. The situation is pretty complex. First, one must discount the view that the government is calling an election because their Brexit negotiations are being hampered by the hapless Labour opposition and nine Liberal Democrat MPs. The government has not been defeated on the issue in Parliament; its margin for triggering Article 50, the key clause for leaving the EU, was 384 votes. Instead, Mrs May had to worry about her own backbenchers, many of whom will resist any compromise with the EU, on continuing payments, jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, migration and the rest. Will there be more hardliners if the Conservatives increase their majority, or fewer? It all depends on the attitude of the new MPs that will come through in June; one doubts that Deutsche has analysed this. Europhile Tories like Ken Clarke are few these days; although the former Chancellor is standing again for Parliament, having previously announced he would step down. One local party chairman has written an article on the Conservative Home website with the headline

提前大选或许是正确的，但风险颇大。目前，英国局势纷繁复杂。首先，不要认为英国政府举行提前大选的原因是脱欧谈判是受到衰败的工党和只有九位议员席位的自由民主党的阻碍。在脱欧谈判问题上，英国保守党政府在议会里无往而不胜，他们以384个议席的巨大优势启动脱欧的关键条款，《里斯本协定》第50条。实际上，特蕾莎·梅应该担心她自己的后座议员，因为他们抗拒对欧盟的妥协，例如在后续支付欧盟成员国“会费”，欧洲法院的管辖权，以及移民等等问题上。如果保守党的议席增加，这些强硬分子会增多还是减少？这将取决于6月新当选的国会议员。对于德意志银行之前的分析，有人表示担心。像肯•克拉克（Ken Clarke）这样的亲欧盟保守党人士越来越少。尽管这前任财政大臣支持国会的决定，但是他之前就宣布会辞去议员一职。英国一位地方保守党主席在曾“保守党之家”的网站上发表了一篇文章，名为

Let’s seize our chance to purge our Party and deselect the Remainers

《让我们抓住机会 清除党内不合格分子团结保守党》

We also know that Mrs May will face consistent pressure from the right-wing press, which is highly Eurosceptic. The Daily Mail’s headline the day following the announcement was “Crush the saboteurs”, which rather puts the PM’s rhetoric about “the country coming together” into context (the Mail's phrase was originally used by Lenin). A lot may depend on how a “hard” and “soft” Brexit is defined; the government seems to have ruled out membership of the single markets and the customs union. This would have been regarded as a very hard Brexit only a year ago. If the EU sticks to its guns, that surely means a less satisfactory trading position for UK companies than before, particularly in the financial sector.

除此之外，特蕾莎·梅还面临来自右翼势力的持续压力，他们多属疑欧派。《每日邮报》的头条文章称，宣布大选当日为“粉碎破坏者”的日子，而不是特蕾莎·梅所谓的“团结国内”的言论一个调调（特蕾莎·梅这一说法源自列宁）。所有这些都要取决于怎样定义“硬脱欧”和“软脱欧”；英国政府似乎要退出欧洲单一市场和关税联盟，可是，这一举措一年前还会被视为脱欧的强硬手段。如果欧盟继续强硬，英国企业的贸易地位就会下降，尤其是在金融领域。

Unicredit takes a different view from Deutsche suggesting that

与德意志银行持不同观点，联合信贷认为

The Conservatives would very likely significantly increase their majority of seats and strengthen their negotiating position for a “hard” Brexit

保守党极可能通过这次大选扩大该党的优势席位，以加强实施硬脱欧策略。

Indeed, some opinion polls have the Conservatives 20 points ahead of opposition Labour. This surely is the real motivation for the early election; chances to crush your opponents do not come that often. Under its Eurosceptic leader, Jeremy Corbyn, Labour has been ineffective on the Brexit issue. Speaking on the Today programme this morning, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, outlines a position that seemed very similar to that of Mrs May; he wants access to the single market, not membership, managed migration, not free movement and so on. He suggested a proposal for a salary cap via a ratio of bosses’ pay to employees’ pay that makes little sense. How would it be enforced? Differential tax rates for different people? What happens if companies simply outsource their lowest-paid jobs?

事实上，一些民意调查显示，保守党比工党领先20个点，对保守党而言，这才是宣布提前大选的真正目的； 要彻底碾压对手的机会并不经常出现。在疑欧派杰里米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）的领导下，工党对脱欧问题上的反应并不积极。影子大臣约翰·麦克唐纳尔（John McDonnell）今早发表讲话，阐述的立场和特蕾莎·梅异曲同工。他希望进入欧洲单一市场，但不是以成员的身份；希望实行有管理的移民计划，而不是放任自流。针对雇主和雇员的工资比例相差太多的情况，约翰·麦克唐纳尔还建议设立工资上限，可这无济无事。这要如何实施呢？设立不同等级的税率？要是企业将低报酬的劳动力外包怎么办？

Labour is deemed to be so hopeless that the Conservatives are 1/12 with many bookies to win the election; you have to bet £12 to gain £1 if Mrs May is re-elected. But it is worth remembering that the same bookies had Remain as a 1/12 bet on the morning of the Brexit referendum.

工党胜算太小了，保守党的赌赔率达到1/12，这意味着特蕾莎·梅成功的话，赌上12英镑才能有机会赚1英镑。但是这也说不定，因为当时英国脱欧公投的赌赔率也是1/12。

Things could go wrong. Voters have been through the 2014 Scottish independence poll, the 2015 election and last year’s Brexit vote; they may be weary of another election and resent the prime minister for calling it.

事情发展可能不太乐观：选民们经历了2014年苏格兰独立公投、2015年大选和去年的脱欧公投后，有点疲惫，特蕾莎·梅提出提前大选自然会引发民怨。

Lib Dems may gain votes and seats from the 48% of the public that voted Remain and is otherwise unrepresented. Labour may manage to move the campaign onto issues such as austerity and the National Health Service, where the Tory appeal is weaker. There is always the risk of bad news; a scandal over expenses in the last election is still rumbling along. Indeed, the current electoral system does not make it easy for the Conservatives to gain seats; in the 2015 election, they were 6.5 percentage points ahead of Labour but only had a 12-seat majority. There are only 21 seats where the Opposition majority is under five percentage points.

自由民主党可能会从48%的留欧派以及不投票群体中获得支持并取得席位。工党会极力将选举话题转移到保守党的弱点上，如通货紧缩和英国国民医疗保健制度。什么事情都不能百分百确定，去年保守党大选的花费丑闻还历历在目。目前的选举制度也不利于保守党争取席位，2015年，保守党仅以超过半数12席位的优势赢得大选。

While it is hard to see anything but a Tory win, there is a chance that the majority may be 40 or 50: not enough to see off the backbench rebels. The equity market was not as buoyant as sterling; the FTSE 100 suffered its worst one-day loss since last June. Its multinationals are hit by a stronger pound but even the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 is no higher than it was before the election announcement. Equity investors may realise there are lot of Brexit-related risks ahead.

尽管保守党这次肯定能取得胜利，但是，增加40或50席位不足以抵消的后座议员的“谋反”。股市走势和英镑不同，英国富时100指数实现了自去年六月以来的当日跌幅最大值。跨国企业因为英镑暴涨而备受打击。以关注英国国内为主的富时250指数在宣布大选后也没有升高。股市投资者意识到英国脱欧相关风险依然潜在。

编译：周小靖

审校：刘恬

编辑：翻吧君

英文来源：经济学人