OCCASIONALLY a business idea emerges that is so simple you cannot believe it works. Consider the five founders of 3G Capital, an investment firm. Warren Buffett co-invests with them and calls them “among the best businessmen in the world”. They use debt to buy consumer-product firms, then they revamp their brands and slash costs. In total, since 1997, they have launched $470bn of deals, through 3G Capital or earlier entities (for simplicity this article lumps these all together and calls them “3G”). That makes 3G the second most acquisitive organisation in modern history. It sells every Budweiser slurped, Whopper burger munched and bottle of Heinz ketchup squirted on the planet.

通常，当一个新的经营理念的出现时，由于太过于简洁，让人无法相信能行之有效。 以有五位创始人的投资机构3G Capital为例。 沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）与他们一起投资，称他们是“世界上最优秀的商人”。 他们以负债方式收购了多家消费品企业，然后改造品牌，削减成本。 总的来说，自1997年以来，他们通过3G Capital或在此之前的企业（为行文方便，以下统称“3G”）进行了4,700亿美元的并购交易，使其成为现代史上第二大收购机构。它掌控着世界上每一瓶百威啤酒，每个Whopper汉堡包和每一瓶Heinz番茄酱的销售。

Yet despite its superb long-term record, 3G is losing steam. In the past two years its total portfolio has lagged slightly behind the S&P 500 index, Schumpeter estimates. Its two biggest firms, AB InBev, a beer giant, and Kraft Heinz, a food company, have returned 6% and 16% respectively, well behind the S&P 500 (29%) and a basket of 20 big rivals (24%). On November 1st shares in Kraft fell after poor results. Once, 3G seemed to be reinventing the consumer industry. Now a better description is that it brilliantly took advantage of a window of opportunity that is closing.

然而，尽管有着长期出色的表现，3G正在逐渐失去动力。熊彼特专栏估算，3G过去两年的总投资组合略低于标普500指数。两大啤酒巨头AB InBev和食品巨头卡夫（Kraft Heinz）的投资回报分别是6％和16％，远低于标准普尔500（29％）和20家竞争对手的综合回报（24％）。11月1日，卡夫的股票因财报业绩不佳，股价下跌。3G一度似乎想要重塑消费行业。 现在，一个更好说法是，它利用了一个正在消失的机会窗口。

By their own description 3G’s founders started out, in Brazil, as mere “finance guys”. The first big deal was the acquisition of Brahma, a local beer firm, in 1989. In the booze industry they bought Interbrew in 2004, Anheuser-Busch, maker of Budweiser, in 2008, and SAB Miller in 2016. The resulting beer colossus, AB InBev, is Europe’s third most valuable company. In the food business, 3G took control of Heinz in 2013 in partnership with Mr Buffett. Heinz then bought Kraft in 2015, and the combined firm tried and failed to buy Unilever in February. 3G also controls Burger King, which it has merged with Tim Hortons, a Canadian fast-food chain where hypothermic Torontonians huddle in winter.

按他们自己的说法，3G的创始人在巴西起步时仅是“做财务的”。第一个大单就是1989年收购了当地的啤酒公司Brahma。在酒业领域，他们于2004年收购了Interbrew，2008年收购了百威啤酒厂商Anweuser-Busch，2016年收购了SAB Miller。由此组成的啤酒巨头 百威英博成为欧洲市值第三的企业。在食品行业，3G与巴菲特于2013年合作掌控了亨氏。之后，亨氏在2015年收购了卡夫，合并后的公司试图在今年二月收购联合利华，但未获成功。3G还控股了汉堡王，而后者之前并购了加拿大快餐连锁店蒂姆·霍顿斯（Tim Hortons）合并——在冬天，冰冷的多伦多人喜欢在这家餐馆聚会。

3G is expert at “zero-based budgeting”, a technique that involves scrutinising consumer firms’ bloated costs. But its magic rests on two simple insights formed decades ago. First, it noted that although the cost of debt financing was low, the yield on consumer firms’ shares was quite high, meaning a juicy spread. Second, conventional managers underestimated how resilient consumer-product firms’ sales are thanks to strong brands and oligopolistic market shares. So costs could be cut (including marketing) without prompting a fall in the top line.

3G擅长于“零基预算”，一种用于审核消费企业的膨胀成本的财务手段。不过，这个手段的神奇在于取决于几十年前形成的两个简单的财务观点。 首先，它指出，虽然债务融资成本低，消费品企业的收益率相当高，意味着有极高的价差。 其次，传统的管理者低估了强大的品牌和寡头垄断市场份额使得消费品企业的销售强劲。因此，削减成本（包括市场营销）不会导致收入下降。

The takeover of Anheuser-Busch, worth $62bn, shows these principles in action. The deal was mostly financed by debt with an annual post-tax cost of 3%. The firm being bought yielded 6% (its annual cashflow after capital spending, as a share of its market capitalisation plus net borrowings). Cost cuts eventually lifted that return to 8%. Normally such high leverage is reckless, because profits are volatile. But Anheuser was different. It had a 48% market share in America, with famous brands that people would keep chugging come hell or high water. After the 2007-08 financial crisis, share prices and interest rates fell, pushing the gap between the cost of debt and consumer firms’ yields wider still. 3G pursued big deals around the world, eventually paying $123bn in 2016 for London-listed SAB Miller.

收购价值620亿美元的安海斯 - 布希（Anheuser-Busch）则是这些原理的应用。这笔交易主要由债务融资，年税后成本为3％。收购企业的收益率为6％（资本支出后的年度现金流量，即占其市值加净借款的份额）。 成本削减让投资回报率达到了8％。通常情况下，这种高杠杆的行为是鲁莽的，因为利润是波动的。但是，安海斯有所不同，在美国市场份额是48％，成为众多美国人不离不弃的著名品牌之一。在经历了2007-2008年金融危机之后，股价和利率双双下跌，拉大了债务成本与消费品企业收益率之间的差距。 3G在全球范围内做出几额收购交易，最终在2016年1230亿美元收购了伦敦上市企业SAB Miller。

Those two original insights are getting tired, though. First, the gap between the cost of debt and the yield of consumer firms has narrowed as their market values have risen. The median yield for a basket of 20 big consumer firms has fallen from 7% in 2010 to 4% now, making deals less profitable. Some firms are pricier than they would otherwise be because their share prices reflect speculation that 3G might make a bid. Mondelez and others have all been rumoured targets in a Wall Street game of “who’s next?”. The cost of debt may start to rise as monetary policy normalises.

但是，这两个早先的观点越来越变得行不通了。首先，债务成本与消费者吕企业收益之间的差距随着企业市值的上涨而缩小。20家大型消费品企业的中间收益率从2010年的7％跌至现在的4％，使得交易利润较低。一些企业的股价过高，因为其中反映了3G可能提出收购的猜测。 在华尔街的“谁是下一个收购目标？”游戏中，Mondelez和其他一些公司都曾传言是目标。 随着货币政策的正常化，债务成本可能开始提高。

The second intuition—that consumer firms’ sales are near-indestructible—is no longer safe. Many customers are opting for niche brands; craft ales instead of Bud Light, or organic take-home meals instead of Kraft’s classic Macaroni and Cheese. In the last quarter, both AB InBev and Kraft Heinz reported stagnant volumes globally and shrinking sales in America. In the medium term e-commerce could reduce the power of big brands. Instead of having a privileged spot on Walmart’s finite shelf space, established consumer companies must now slug it out with smaller brands on Amazon.

第二个直觉，即消费品公司的销售几乎是坚不可摧的，已不再雷打不动。许多客户倾向于选择利基品牌：喝手工酿造的啤酒而不是百威轻啤（Bud Light），买有机的可带回家的饭菜，而不是卡夫经典的通心粉和奶酪。在上个季度，百威英博和卡夫海因茨的全球销售额停滞不前，在美国的销售也出现萎缩。在中期来看，电商会降低大品牌的实力。与在沃尔玛有限的货架空间里占据特定位置不同，老牌的消费品企业现在必须在亚马逊上与各小品牌竞争。

Such shifts will not threaten 3G’s current firms. Cost savings are still going to help their bottom lines. Profits at AB InBev and Kraft Heinz would have to fall by two-thirds or more before they struggled to make interest payments. And their combined debt pile, though huge (equivalent to the fourth-largest of any non-financial firm in the world), is well-organised, with repayments spread out over years. Even so, a decade of mediocrity beckons.

这样的消费行为的转变不会威胁3G的现有企业。节约成本仍然有助于保住他们的底线。AB InBev和Kraft Heinz的利润将不得不下降三分之二甚至更多，这样才能还得上利息。他们的债务总额虽然庞大（相当于在全球非金融公司中排名第四），组织管理却是十分良好的，债务清偿时间长。即便如此，未来十年的业绩可能会很平庸。

The number’s up

数字的增长

One option is a final flurry of deals. The possibility cannot be ruled out—which is why consumer-product firms must stay on their toes. But as well as being expensive, cross-border deals and job cuts have become more politically sensitive (Kraft Heinz has cut 10,000 jobs since 2013). 3G’s bid for Unilever caused a stink in Britain and the Netherlands. Trustbusters would block another big beer deal. Perhaps reflecting this, 3G is trying a new approach, of expanding firms through investment and innovation. Here, AB InBev is in a reasonable position, given its exposure to fast-growing emerging economies and its experience of turning niche beer brands into big sellers. Energising Kraft is a taller order, since creativity is not in its DNA and 69% of its sales are in America.

一个办法是最后的一波收购交易。不能排除这种可能性——这就是为什么消费品企业必须坚持下去的原因。但是，除了股价过高之外，跨境交易和裁员也变得更具政治敏感性（自2013年以来，卡夫-亨氏裁员1万人）。3G对联合利华的收购在英国和荷兰引起了不小的反响。 反垄断监管机构会阻止新的啤酒企业大收购。也许是看到了这一点，3G正在试新方法，通过投资和创新来扩大企业规模。比如，百威英博处于一个合理的定位，因为它面向快速增长的新兴经济体，以及具有将利基啤酒品牌转化为大品牌的经验。加强卡夫的活力是一个更高的目标，因为它的DNA里没有创新，而且69％的销售在美国。

3G’s pivot will be a struggle. But what a run it has had. It took advantage of a time when rates were low, stockmarkets were cheap, protectionist instincts subdued, anger over job losses muted and digital competition still nascent. Its adventures have not necessarily made the world a fairer place, but as a piece of intelligent, opportunistic investing they deserve three cheers.

3G的支撑点将是一场斗争。 但是，它一直都在变动。在利率低，股市走低，保护主义的本能受压制，人们对失业的愤怒减弱，数字竞争处于新起阶段的时刻，它抓住了这些时机。它的这些冒险行为并不一定会让世界变得更加公平，而是作为一个机智，甚至投机性的投资行为，他们值得人们为之喝彩。

编译：马佳艺

审校：靳婷

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人