STEVE JOBS liked to describe computers as “bicycles for the mind”—tools that let humans do things faster and more efficiently than their bodies would allow. The internet-connected bikes flooding the streets of urban China could be called “computers for the road”. Networked, trackable and data-generating, they are ones and zeros in aluminium form.

史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）喜欢把计算机比作“思维的自行车”——帮助人类突破肉体的限制，更高效快捷地做事。涌入中国的大街小巷的联网自行车可谓是“道路上的计算机”。具备网络连接、实时跟踪及数据生产功能，这些自行车成了铝制外表下由一列列1和0组成的代码。

The cycles belong to Ofo and Mobike, two startups that, taken together, have raised $2.2bn of capital and are valued at more than $4bn. Each has between 7m and 10m bikes in China, averages 30m-35m rides a day and, having entered more than 100 Chinese cities, is expanding abroad. At the start of 2016 neither firm had a single bike on a public road. Ofo’s canary-yellow cycles and Mobike’s silver-and-orange ones can now be found in cities from Adelaide to London and Singapore to Seattle.

这些自行车是Ofo和摩拜。这两家创业企业总共融资22亿美元，市值超过40亿美元。两家企业各自在中国投放了700万-1000万辆自行车，平均每天骑行频率在3000-3500万次之间；在进驻100多个城市的同时，还在海外扩张。2016年初，还没有哪家公司的共享单车出现在公共道路上。如今Ofo的淡黄色自行车，摩拜的银橙色自行车已进入阿德莱德（Adelaide）、伦敦、新加坡和西雅图。

Most city bike-sharing systems, such as the Vélib scheme in Paris, depend on fixed docks in which cycles must be parked. Ofo and Mobike instead pioneered a “dockless” bike secured with a smart lock that can be released with a smartphone app. They charge much less than public programmes. In London it costs £2 ($2.66), and typically lots of poking at an unresponsive kiosk-mounted screen, just to unlock a city-run shared bike. The equivalent with an Ofo, after an initial deposit, is 50 pence every half an hour and a few seconds to get going. In China rides cost between 0.50 and 1 yuan ($0.08-0.15) for 30 minutes.

大多数城市的共享单车体系，包括巴黎的Vélib项目，都依靠固定桩泊车。Ofo和摩拜在“无桩”方面开了先河——用智能手机应用开单，收费也比同类公共自行车低。在伦敦，公共单车收费为2英镑（2.66美元） 34 29811 34 10219 0 0 4191 0 0:00:07 0:00:02 0:00:05 4191，还要在报刊亭是和一块反应迟钝的屏幕上点点戳戳好几回，才能打开由城市运营的共享单车。相比之下，只要存入押金，一辆Ofo每半个小时收费50便士，只需几秒钟便能上路。在中国，骑行30分钟收费在0.5-1元（0.08-0.15美元）之间。

It helps that the firms save on physical infrastructure such as docks. But the main reason they can afford such low fees is because they have abundant funding: in June Mobike raised $600m, much of it from Tencent, a messaging, gaming and payments giant. (Qualcomm, an American chipmaker, made a smaller investment this month.) In July Ofo raised $700m in a funding round led by Alibaba, an e-commerce and payments company.

这种方式能让企业减少在车桩等基础设施上的投入。他们收费低廉的主要原因是资金雄厚：6月，摩拜获得6亿美元融资，资金主要来自短信应用、游戏和支付巨头腾讯。（美国芯片制造商高通（Qualcomm）本月也投了一些资本）7月，在电商和支付企业阿里巴巴领投的新一轮融资中，Ofo筹集到7亿美元。

Many smaller, copycat bike-share startups have gone under. Last week it emerged that Bluegogo, a distant third in China’s bike-sharing wars, had gone bust. Its puny $90m in funding and 700,000 bikes were no match for the market leaders. Another operator shut down after 90% of its 1,200 bikes were stolen six months after launch. Many schemes have been funded with scant financial analysis by investors.

一些规模更小，复制模式的共享自行车创业企业就没这么幸运了。上周，在共享自行车大战中被远远甩在第三名的小蓝单车（Bluegogo）倒闭。它拥有的9000万美元资本和70万辆单车不足以与市场领先者抗衡。另一家公司成立六个月，投放了1200辆单车，却有90%的单车被盗的企业也倒闭了。对于很多项目，投资者没有做好事前的财务分析就投资。

Nor are Ofo and Mobike profitable, though not for want of growth. China’s bike-sharing market grew from 33m yuan in the third quarter of 2016 to 3.9bn yuan in the second quarter of 2017, says iResearch, a market-research firm. Zhang Yanqi, an Ofo co-founder, thinks China could support 300m rides a day, up from 50m-60m today. Both firms believe rental fees alone could make them profitable businesses if they stopped spending on expansion at home and abroad.

即便不进行拓展，Ofo和摩拜也难以盈利。市场调查机构艾瑞称，中国共享单车市场从2016年第三季度的3300万元发展至2017年第二季度的39亿元。Ofo联合创始人张严琪认为，中国可以满足每天3亿的骑行频次，远高于当下的5000-6000万次。两家公司都认为，如果停止在国内外的扩张，他们仅凭租金便足以盈利。

Analysts reckon the real money may be in other sources of revenue. The firms hold hundreds of millions worth of yuan in deposits collected from users. For now this money lies unutilised—Chinese law is unclear about how, if it all, it can be used. But firms hope that will change. Lending it would be one possibility. Another idea is a sort of crowdsourced logistics, asking riders to carry along packages in exchange for free rides or a small payment. Mobike already incentivises users to move its bikes around to high-demand areas by offering “red envelopes” worth a few yuan. Advertising on “billboards” within wheels is also a promising avenue. And the firms can agree with brands to offer digital coupons for shops on a rider’s route. Mobike works with McDonald’s and JD.com, an e-commerce company, to do just that.

分析人士认为，真正的盈利可能来自其他渠道。两家公司各自掌握着数十亿元用户押金。这些钱仍处于闲置状态——中国的法律对这押金的用途规定不明确。各公司希望这一情况能有所改变。用于借贷是一种可能。而另一种可能是众包物流，让骑行的人投递包裹，以此换取免费骑行或者小额报酬。摩拜正在以价值若干元的红包方式，鼓励用户将车停放在需求旺盛的区域。在车轮间安置“广告牌”也是可行之道。公司可以同品牌合作，为骑行者提供沿线商家的电子优惠券。摩拜正与麦当劳、电商京东展开这方面的合作。

But most value could come from data, especially used in partnership with Alibaba and Tencent. The bike-sharing firms are already becoming part of their strategic investors’ business models. Ofo uses Alibaba’s credit-rating system to allow users to rent bikes with no deposit, for example. More data could be shared. As Mr Zhang puts its, the firm’s main investor, Alibaba, “already knows how much [users] spend, where they spend it and what they spend it on. But with us they have a very strong idea of people’s total activity.” Mobike says it does not share data on a commercial basis with any firm.

但最有价值的还是数据，特别是能与阿里巴巴和腾讯合作利用的数据。共享单车公司已被其战略投资者纳入自己的商业模式。例如，Ofo利用阿里巴巴的信用等级系统，让用户可以免押金租车。能共享的数据还有很多。正如张严琪所言，作为Ofo主要投资者，阿里巴巴“已知晓用户的开销数目、消费地点、所购物品。而同我们合作，他们将更深入地了解人们的全部行为。”摩拜表示自己不会出于商业目的同任何企业分享数据。

The bike wars recall the one between ride-hailing firms in China, which ended with mergers that left one player, Didi Chuxing. Rumours of a possible merger between Ofo and Mobike have been swirling for weeks. Allen Zhu, an early investor in Ofo who is pushing for a merger, says making money is terrifically hard with so much competition. But neither Ofo nor Mobike is willing publicly to admit it. “In my entire career at Ofo I have spent less than five minutes talking about a merger with Mobike,” says Mr Zhang. “I don’t see any point or meaning in merging,” maintains Mobike’s president, Hu Weiwei.

单车大战让人想起此前中国打车企业之间的争夺。那场战争以兼并告终，滴滴出行统领整个市场。这几周不断传出Ofo将同摩拜合并的流言。Ofo早期投资者朱啸虎（Allen Zhu）也力主合并。他表示，竞争如此激烈，盈利是极其困难的。不过Ofo和摩拜都不愿公开承认这一点。张严琪表示，“投身Ofo以来，我谈论同摩拜合并的时间不超过五分钟。”摩拜创始人胡玮炜坚称：“我认为合并没有任何意义。”

编译：程馨莹

审校：黄敏华

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人