COBALT derives its name from Kobold, a mischievous German goblin who, according to legend, lurks underground. For centuries it vexed medieval miners by looking like a valuable ore that subsequently turned into worthless—and sometimes noxious—rubble. Once again it is threatening to cause trouble, this time in the growing market for batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), each of which uses about 10kg of cobalt. The source of mischief is no longer in Germany, though, but in China.

Cobalt一词来源于Kobold，它是德国神话里一位潜藏在地下的顽皮小精灵。几个世纪以来，这种形似贵重矿石，实则一文不值，最后甚至会变成有毒碎石的金属令中世纪旷工颇为恼火。如今，钴又引发了麻烦，这次是不断增长的电动车电池市场（每辆电动车需10kg左右的钴）。然而这次挑起是非的不是德国，而是中国。

It is widely known that more than half of the world’s cobalt reserves and production are in one dangerously unstable country, the Democratic Republic of Congo. What is less well known is that four-fifths of the cobalt sulphates and oxides used to make the all-important cathodes for lithium-ion batteries are refined in China. (Much of the other 20% is processed in Finland, but its raw material, too, comes from a mine in Congo, majority-owned by a Chinese firm, China Molybdenum.)

众所周知，世界上一半以上的钴储量和产量都出自刚果民 42 35257 42 14939 0 0 1311 0 0:00:26 0:00:11 0:00:15 2924共和国（Democratic Republic of Congo）这个极度不稳定的国家。鲜有人知的是，锂离子电池阴极所需的钴酸盐和氧化物有五分之四是在中国进行提炼的。（剩下的20%在芬兰处理，但原材料也来自刚果金的一座矿山，该矿山大部分为中国钼业公司（China Molybdenum.）所有。）

On March 14th concerns about China’s grip on Congo’s cobalt production deepened when GEM, a Chinese battery maker, said it would acquire a third of the cobalt shipped by Glencore, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, between 2018 and 2020—equivalent to almost half of the world’s 110,000-tonne production in 2017. This is likely to add momentum to a rally that has pushed the price of cobalt up from an average of $26,500 a tonne in 2016 to above $90,000 a tonne.

3月14日，中国电池制造商格林美公司（GEM）表示，在2018-2010年间，公司将从世界上最大的钴生产公司嘉能可（ Glencore）处购买三分之一的钴，相当于2017年全球11万吨钴产量的一半。至此，中国对刚果金钴产量的控制令人们更为担忧。此举可能会促使钴的价格从2016年的2.65万美元每吨上升至每吨9万美元以上。

It is not known whether non-Chinese battery, EV or consumer-electronics manufacturers have done similar, unannounced deals with Glencore. But Sam Jaffe of Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a consultancy, says it will be a severe blow to some firms. He likens the outcome of the deal to a game of musical chairs in which Chinese battery manufacturers have taken all but one of the seats. “Everybody else is frantically looking for that last empty chair.”

目前，国外电池、电动汽车或消费电子产品制造商是否也与嘉能可公司进行了类似的秘密交易尚不清楚。但是凯恩能源研究咨询公司（Cairn Energy Research Advisors）的顾问萨姆·贾菲（Sam Jaffe）表示，一些公司会受到严重打击。他把这场交易的结果比作一场“抢椅子游戏”。在这场游戏中，中国的电池制造商已经占据了绝大多数座位，只剩下一个空位。“其他人都在疯狂地抢夺那个最后的空位。”

Mr Jaffe doubts the cobalt grab is an effort by Chinese firms to corner or manipulate the market for speculative ends. Instead, he says, they are likely to be driven by a “desperate need” to fulfil China’s ambitious plans to step up production of EVs.

贾菲认为中国企业不太可能使为了控制或操纵钴市场从而实现投机的目的。他说，倒可能是因为受到了“迫切需求”的驱使为了实现中国加速生产电动汽车的雄心计划。

Others see it more ominously. George Heppel of CRU, a consultancy, says that, in addition to GEM sweeping up such a sizeable chunk of Glencore’s output, China Moly may eventually ship its Congo cobalt home rather than to Finland, giving China as much as 95% of the cobalt-chemicals market. “A lot of our clients are South Korean and Japanese tech firms and it’s a big concern of theirs that so much of the world’s cobalt sulphate comes from China.” Memories are still fresh of a maritime squabble in 2010, during which China restricted exports of rare-earth metals vital to Japanese tech firms. China produces about 85% of the world’s rare earths.

其他人则认为后果更严重。CRU咨询公司顾问乔治·赫佩尔（George Heppel）表示，除了格林美公司大肆购买嘉能可的钴以外，中国洛钼集团可能最终会将刚果生产的钴运回中国而非芬兰，这将使中国在钴化工市场中占据95%的份额。“我们的很多客户都来自日韩科技公司，世界上大部分的硫酸钴都源自中国令他们十分担忧。”2010年的海上纷争仍历历在目。当时，中国限制了对日本科技企业来说至关重要的稀土金属出口。中国的稀土产量约占全球的85%。

Few analysts expect the cobalt market to soften soon. Production in Congo is likely to increase in the next few years, but some investment may be deterred by a recent five-fold leap in royalties on cobalt. Investment elsewhere is limited because cobalt is almost always mined alongside copper or nickel. Even at current prices, the quantities needed are not enough to justify production for cobalt alone.

多数分析师认为钴市场不会很快走软。刚果金的钴产量在未来几年内可能会增加，但最近钴的特许权使用费增加了5倍，这可能会令一些投资者望而却步。而由于钴几乎总是与铜或镍一起开采，因此其他地方的投资有限。即使按目前的价格计算，所需的钴数量也不足以使单独生产钴成为可能。

But demand could explode if EVs surge in popularity. Mr Heppel says that, though most cobalt is currently mined for batteries in smartphones and for superalloys inside jet engines (see chart), its use for EVs could jump from 9,000 tonnes in 2017 to 107,000 tonnes in 2026.

如果电动汽车的普及率上升，对钴的需求则可能会激增。赫佩尔表示，虽然目前大多数钴用于智能手机电池和喷气发动机内的超耐热合金（见图表），但电动汽车的钴用量可能从2017年的0.9万吨增加至2026年的10.7万吨。

The resulting higher prices would eventually unlock new sources of supply. But already non-Chinese battery manufacturers are looking for ways to protect themselves from potential shortages. Their best answer to date is the other “goblin metal” closely associated with cobalt, nickel, whose name comes from a German spirit closely related to Old Nick.

由此产生的较高价格最终将解锁新的供应源。但国外电池制造商已经在寻找方法来使自己免受潜在的短缺风险。迄今为止，最好的解决方式是另一种与钴、镍密切相关的“幽灵金属”，这个名字源自一位与撒旦密切相关的德国幽灵。

The materials most commonly used for cathodes in EV batteries are a combination of nickel, manganese and cobalt known as NMC, and one of nickel, cobalt and aluminium known as NCA. As cobalt has become pricier and scarcer, some battery makers have produced cobalt-lite cathodes by raising the nickel content—to as much as eight times the amount of cobalt. This allows the battery to run longer on a single charge, but makes it harder to manufacture and more prone to burst into flames. The trick is to get the balance right.

在电动汽车中，镍锰钴混合物（又称NMC）及镍钴铝混合物（又称NCA）常用作电池阴极材料。由于钴日益昂贵、罕见，一些电池制造商将镍的含量提高至钴的八倍，生产出类似钴的电池阴极，这使得电池在单次充电后能运行更久，但制造起来更加困难，并且更容易着火。不着火的诀窍在于电荷平衡。

Strangely, nickel has not had anything like cobalt’s price rise. Nor do the Chinese appear to covet it. Oliver Ramsbottom of McKinsey, a consultancy, says the reason for this relative indifference dates back to the commodities supercycle in 2000-12, when Indonesia and the Philippines ramped up production of class-2 nickel—in particular nickel pig iron, a lower-cost ingredient of stainless steel—until the bubble burst. The subsequent excess capacity and stock build-up caused nickel prices to plummet from $29,000 a tonne in 2011 to below $10,000 a tonne last year.

令人奇怪的是，镍没有像钴一样价格上涨。中国似乎也无贪求之心。麦肯锡咨询公司（ McKinsey）的奥利弗·拉姆斯博顿（Oliver Ramsbottom）表示，中国对镍无多大热情的原因可以追溯至2000年至2012年间大宗商品周期时期。当时印度尼西亚和菲律宾提高二级镍，尤其是镍生铁的产量，这种生铁是一种成本更低的不锈钢材料 ，这种情况一直持续到经济泡沫破裂。随后的产能过剩和库存积压导致镍价从2011年的每吨2.9万美元骤降至去年的每吨1万美元以下。

As yet, the demand for high-quality nickel suitable for EVs has not boosted production. Output of Class-1 nickel for EVs was only 35,000 tonnes last year, out of total nickel production of 2.1m tonnes. But by 2025 McKinsey expects EV-related nickel demand to rise 16-fold to 550,000 tonnes.

迄今为止，电动汽车对高品质镍的需求并没有促进生产。去年，电动汽车所需的一类镍产量仅为3.5万吨，而镍的总产量为210万吨。但麦肯锡预测，到2025年，电动汽车对镍的需求将增长16倍，达到55万吨。

In theory, the best way to ensure sufficient supplies of both nickel and cobalt would be for prices to rise enough to make mining them together more profitable. But that would mean more expensive batteries, and thus electric vehicles. Only a goblin would relish such a conundrum.

从理论上来说，确保镍和钴供应充足的最好方法是提高价格，使两者一起开采更有利可图。但那意味着电池会更昂贵，电动车也会更贵。大家都不会喜欢这样的难题。

编译：amy4u

审校：木落ing

编辑：齐磊

来源：经济学人（2018.02.27）