中国出口增速放缓与区域劳动力市场就业调整
《财经研究》 2021年47卷第1期 页码：135 - 152 online：2020年12月30日
中国出口增速放缓与区域劳动力市场就业调整
China’s Export Slowdown and Employment Adjustment in Local Labor Market
作者（中）：赵春明1, 李震1 *, 李宏兵2
作者（英）：Zhao Chunming1, Li Zhen1 *, Li Hongbing2
作者单位：1.北京师范大学 经济与工商管理学院，北京 100875 2.北京邮电大学 经济管理学院，北京 100876
摘要：文章利用2010−2015年中国海关数据库与2012年、2014年和2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据，构建了城市出口增速放缓指标及基于全球总体贸易需求下降的“Bartik工具变量”，从多维视角有效识别了中国出口增速放缓对区域劳动力市场就业调整的影响效应。研究发现：出口增速放缓显著降低了当地15−64岁劳动力参与工作的概率，出口增长幅度每下降1 000美元/人，当地劳动力就业概率则下降3.7%。出口增速放缓使得劳动力在不同部门与不同就业身份之间进行重新配置，制造业和雇员就业概率下降，而服务业和自雇身份就业概率则上升，从而产生就业调整效应。机制检验表明，出口增速放缓对当地可贸易部门的企业绩效造成负面冲击，继而以降低劳动力需求来推动就业调整；而非贸易部门的企业绩效则在一定程度上缓冲了这一冲击。另外，基于当地劳动力失业原因与求职表现的研究进一步为这一机制提供了间接证据。上述研究结论为我国有效化解贸易风险和深入推进就业优先的双重战略目标提供了理论支持和经验证据。
关键词：出口增速放缓; 区域劳动力市场; 就业调整; 企业绩效
Summary: Under the dual background of prominent external environmental risks of international trade and China’s promotion of an all-round opening-up pattern and high-quality economic development, stabilizing the development of foreign trade and ensuring priority employment of labor is of great significance to the smooth operation of the national economy. Facing the negative impact of declining foreign trade demand, what is the employment performance of China’s labor market? How does the labor force adjust? What role do the firms play in it?To answer these questions, this paper builds a “Bartik Instrument” for regional export slowdown based on the fact that the decline of global overall trade demand, and examines its impact on employment adjustment in China’s local labor market, using data of China’s General Administration of Customs from 2010 to 2015 and China’s Labor-force Dynamics Survey in 2012, 2014 and 2016. The study finds that: First, export slowdown has significantly inhibited the probability of the local labor force aged 15-64 to participate in the work. For each $1, 000 decrease in the growth of export per capita, the probability the people participating in work decreases by 3.7%. Second, local workers are re-allocated between different employment sectors and different employment statuses. Specifically, the employment probability of manufacturing declines, and the employment probability of service industries rises. It is mainly reflected in the young workers and the workers with lower education. In addition, export slowdown has caused the labor force to adjust from an employee’s employment status to a self-employed status, which reflects the fact that people participate in informal forms of employment in response to negative trade shocks. Third, the analysis of the mechanism shows that export slowdown has a negative impact on the performance of local manufacturing firms, which will pass on negative trade shocks to workers in the form of reduced labor demand, while the performance of service firms has cushioned this shock to some extent. The reasons for the unemployment mainly coming from firm-level factors and the more difficult job hunting further provide indirect evidence for this mechanism.The conclusions of this paper provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for China’s dual strategic goals of effectively resolving trade risks and further promoting employment priority. We need to formulate scientific trade policies to resolve external environmental risks and promote the stability of China’s trade and high-quality development of economy. In addition, we also need to improve the development of new types of employment and build a smoother labor employment security mechanism to enhance the people’s ability to withstand the external uncertain risks.
Key words: export slowdown; local labor market; employment adjustment; firm performance
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20200815.201
收稿日期：2020-5-24
基金项目：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目（20YJA790094）；北京市社会科学基金一般项目（20JJB010）；北京市自然科学基金面上项目（9192015）；国家社会科学基金后期资助一般项目（19FJLB023）
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