气候政策不确定性与中国企业升级困境

气候政策不确定性与中国企业升级困境

Climate Policy Uncertainty and Upgrading Dilemma of Chinese Enterprises

《财经研究》2024年50卷第2期 页码：123-138 online：2024年2月3日

作者

中：汪顺1 , 余璐2 , 雷玲3

英：Wang Shun1, Yu Lu2, Lei Ling3

作者单位：1. 安徽大学 商学院，安徽 合肥 230601; 2. 江西财经大学 会计学院，江西 南昌 330013; 3. 安徽大学 经济学院，安徽 合肥 230601

摘要及关键词

摘要：随着气候变化的加剧，气候政策在中国经济系统中发挥着越来越重要的作用。现有文献已经关注到气候物理风险对企业生产率的影响，但较少考察政策维度的气候风险即气候政策不确定性对企业生产率的影响。基于此，文章构建了公司层面的气候政策不确定性指数，并考察了其对企业全要素生产率的影响效应和作用机理。研究表明，气候政策不确定性会诱发企业升级困境，显著抑制企业全要素生产率提升。气候政策不确定性指数每上升1个标准差，全要素生产率下降约5.2%个标准差。机制分析表明，气候政策不确定性会挤出实体投资和绿色创新投资，挤入金融投资，从而抑制企业全要素生产率提升。异质性分析表明，气候政策不确定性的影响在风险传导较强、风险应对较差以及政策引导比较薄弱的企业中更加显著。经济后果分析表明，气候政策不确定性所导致的企业升级困境会弱化其市场竞争力和价值链话语权。文章研究表明，政府应关注气候政策不确定性问题，通过营造更加稳定的气候政策预期来缓解企业升级困境。

关键词：气候政策不确定性；全要素生产率；气候变化；气候风险；碳中和

Summary: Faced with the increasingly severe issue of climate change, as a responsible nation, China proposed the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” in 2020, and promoted the goal and active participation in global climate governance to a national strategic level in the report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In recent years, China’s macro climate policy uncertainty index has rapidly increased, which is related to the fact that China is currently in a new development stage and urgently needs to continuously introduce climate policies to promote the goal. This paper constructs a firm-level climate policy uncertainty index and matches it with enterprise TFP data. The empirical results indicate that climate policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on enterprise TFP, leading to an upgrading dilemma of Chinese enterprises. Mechanism testing shows that climate policy uncertainty suppresses enterprise TFP through three paths: physical investment crowding out, green innovation crowding out, and financial investment crowding in. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of climate policy uncertainty is more significant in sub-samples with stronger risk transmission, poorer risk response, and weaker policy guidance. The economic consequences indicate that the upgrading dilemma caused by climate policy uncertainty will further lead to the loss of market competitiveness and discourse power, which is not conducive to the high-quality development of enterprises. The marginal contributions of this paper are that: First, it extends the physical risk in the field of climate risk to the policy risk dimension, and considers the key role of policy factors in China’s economic operation. Policy risks represented by climate policy uncertainty will also have a profound impact on the production and operation of enterprises, so this paper provides a useful supplement to existing literature in the field of climate risk from the perspective of climate policy risk dimension. Second, it embeds the important factor of climate policy uncertainty into existing literature on climate policies and productivity, providing a useful supplement to the aforementioned literature. Third, it provides a theoretical basis for government departments to formulate proactive and prudent climate policies and moderately maintain policy stability.

Key words: climate policy uncertainty; TFP; climate change; climate risk; carbon neutrality

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20231120.103

收稿日期：2023-07-29

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目（22CJY032）

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