对话 | 疫情下的环境科学专家在行动：模型预测与科学辟谣
新冠疫情爆发后，关于疫情走势及防疫手段的各类信息及谣言层出不穷。西交利物浦大学健康与环境科学系老师迅速联合团队成员搭建模型，预测全国及各省的疫情发展趋势，将成果在网络平台上进行可视化发布。同时开辟数据下载和答疑辟谣专区，至今不到三周已收获20万访问量，来自超过110个国家和地区。此平台不仅有利于全球科研信息的即时共享，还将专业的数字建模及科学知识转化为普通大众都关注且接受的信息科普，完成了一次极具意义的“跨界”。
为了解疫情防控中高校科研团队的作用，并为此类的“跨界”搭建交流平台，西浦城市与环境校级研究中心特邀本校专家邹怡博士，与我们分享如何通过理性预测把握疫情发展规律；并从保护生物多样性出发，对更好地尊重生态系统的内在规则进行反思。
本期嘉宾 | 邹怡 博士
邹怡博士是西交利物浦大学健康与环境科学系讲师；博士毕业于英国伦敦大学学院(UCL)，曾在荷兰瓦赫宁根大学从事博士后研究。入选江苏省人才“双创计划”、苏州市“优秀教育工作者”等。主要研究方向为景观生态学，生物多样性，昆虫授粉以及生物控害服务。主要教学研究设计，全球变化生态学等全英文课程。Dr Zou is a Lecturer at Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University. He received his Ph.D. from University College London, and worked as postdoctoral researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. He was awarded as the "Jiangsu Province Innovation & Entrepreneurship Talent Program" and "Outstanding Educator of Suzhou”. His research interests include landscape ecology, biodiversity, insect pollination and biological control services. He is teaching Research Design, Global Change Ecology courses.
* 访谈文字整理如下
1
此次疫情爆发后，您迅速组建团队建立网站，并且在网站上发布通过模型得出的疫情预测图表，分享可供公众免费使用的原始数据。请问您和团队成员的这一举动的初衷是什么？
目前关于新型冠状病毒有海量的新闻和资源，有时公众很难从中获取关键信息，并对谣言进行辨别。
我们创建这个网站的初衷是为了向科学家、记者以及其他研究工作者提供开放的数据访问，并为其日常的统计建模创造便利。
在中文版网站中，我们还开辟专栏，针对虚假新闻及谣言提供基于证据基础的回应。所有这些信息都是从政府网站和权威媒体平台上自动抓取的，并保持每半小时更新一次。
我们希望基于此平台的信息整合功能，能够让公众快速获取不同地区关于感染情况的最新消息，积极分辨谣言；而科学家可以利用这些数据去开展其他更多的有益分析。目前，网站已有超过20万的访问量，我们希望这个网站能够为更多的人提供数据共享便利，共同抗击疫情。
网站平台页面
（网址：https://ncov2020.org/）
After the outbreak of the disease, you have quickly assembled a team, built a website, posted the prediction charts online and made the raw data open for public. So what is the original intention of this action?
There are numerous news and resources about the novel coronavirus. Sometimes it is difficult for public to pick up the key information, and to distinguish rumours.
We created the website to provide open access data for scientists, journalists and other researchers to access, as well as daily statistical modelling.
In the Chinese version of the website, we also provided evidence-based answers to myths and rumours. All these information are obtained automatically from government websites and public medias and updated every half an hour.
We hope that through the integration of information, public can quickly get latest news about the infection situation at different regions and distinguish rumours, while scientists can use the data to conduct other analysis. The website has received more than 200,000 visits, we hope this website can provide more people with data sharing and fight the epidemic together.
2
此预测的基本假设是，感染人数的增长符合Logistic回归模型，这也是一种常用的人口动态和流行病学分析方法。
这意味着，感染人数总量将有一个渐近值。这条曲线看起来像是一个拉伸的字母S，其中曲线顶部表示最大病例数。
全国确诊病例时间趋势图和模型预测
（图片来源：https://ncov2020.org/zh/predict-2020-02-26/）
虽然该模型没有判断影响当前感染情况的因素，但显然在一定程度上限制人们聚集是一种行之有效的办法。
What is the mechanism and parameters of the model, and what do you think is the most important factor that bringing the disease under control?
The basic assumption is that the growing of the infection fits the logistic regression model, which is commonly used for population dynamics and epidemiological analysis.
This means, there will be an asymptotic value for the total number of infected people. The curve looks like a stretched version of the letter 'S.', where the top of the curve indicates the maximum number of cases.
While the model does not judge factors that influence the current infectious situation, apparently to some extent to restrict people from gathering together is an effective approach.
3
这几天的疫情走势是否与模型预期结果吻合，为什么？
该模型显示，国内的现存确诊病例数自2月12日开始呈下降趋势。截至目前，疫情走势仍与模型预测结果相当契合。正如大家可从官方报告中看到的那样，每天新增治愈人数已超越新增确诊人数，且许多省份未报告有新增感染病例。这是一个积极的迹象，表明目前的形势是可控的。
然而，我们需要认清是，数学模型并不是展示未来的直接窗口。有许多因素会影响模型的结果。例如，假如影响趋势的因素发生变化或当前病例的数据被瞒报、漏报等，那么模型的预测将不再准确。
全国各地确诊病例数动态图
（图片来源：https://ncov2020.org/intro/）
Is the trend of the epidemic in these days consistent with the expected results of the model? And why?
The model indicates that active infections in China was declining since the 12th February. So far the current situation still fits the model well. As you may notice from official reports, each day more people get cured than infected, and many provinces have reported no new infection case. This is a good sign, which indicates that the current situation is under control.
However, a mathematical model is not a direct window to the future. There were many factors that could influence the model. For example, if factors that affect the trend change or if the data on current cases is underreported, then the model’s indications will not be accurate.
4
我们人类作为自然界的一部分归属于生态系统。生态系统作为一个整体，其网络结构精心地维持着内部的平衡，而生物多样性是这些网络的固有单元。
每个物种在这个系统中都有其独特的作用，它们会相互斗争，相互制衡，同时也会功能互补。
不得不承认人类是一个非常成功的物种。我们受益于生态系统提供的服务，且有时消耗资源的速度比补充它们的速度更快。但是，我们必须非常小心，不要打破自然界原有的生态平衡。保护生物多样性，尊重自然，与其他生物和谐相处是非常重要的。
Disease experts mentioned that this outbreak originated from the fact that the virus crossed the boundary between animals and humans. As an expert on biodiversity, what do you think about the relationship between humans and nature? Is it possible that we not cross boundaries and live in harmony?
We human beings as a part of the nature, belong to the ecosystem. While ecosystem as a whole, its networks are elaborately maintaining its balance. And biodiversity is the intrinsic unit of these networks.
Each species has its unique role in the system; they may fight with each other, but also restrict each other from outbreaks, and provide complementarity functions for each other.
We have to admit that humans are a very successful species. We benefited from ecosystem services. Sometimes we remove resources faster than replace them. However, we have to be very careful not to break the ecological balance. It is important to conserve biodiversity, to respect the nature, and live harmoniously with other creatures.
最后，引用团队公众号里的一句话
每一个数字的背后，都是一个鲜活的生命
”数字模型是我们理性预测未来的手段
而不只是一个冰冷的工具
（图片来源于网络)
网站地址 Website Address
（中英文界面 Chinese and English version）
https://ncov2020.org/
微信公众平台（莱茵数据在线）
（持续更新关于疫情全面结束时间、
治愈率及病死率等预测）
团队成员
赵鹏博士 | 西交利物浦大学健康与环境科学系
邹怡博士 | 西交利物浦大学健康与环境科学系
韩蕾博士 | 西交利物浦大学健康与环境科学系
王小享博士 | 南方科技大学
拓展阅读
西交利物浦城市与环境校级研究中心
XJTLU-Urban and Environmental Studies
University Research Centre
欢迎分享您的观点与优质资源
投稿邮箱ues.urc@xjtlu.edu.cn
西交利物浦大学（简称“西浦”）是经中国教育部批准，由西安交通大学和英国利物浦大学合作创立的，具有独立法人资格和鲜明特色的新型国际大学。她是中国第一所以理工管起步，强强合作，拥有中华人民共和国学士学位和英国利物浦大学学位授予权的中外合作大学。