FIFTH AVENUE in New York is the most expensive stretch of retail property in the world, now festooned with lights in the approach to Christmas. The pavements heave with crowds eager to see the diamonds sparkling at Tiffany & Co, a jeweller, and festive displays at Saks Fifth Avenue, a department store. But storefronts further downtown in once-thriving shopping districts remain vacant.

圣诞节临近，全球最昂贵的零售地段的纽约第五大道挂满了各种灯光装饰物。大街上挤满了熙熙攘攘的人群，他们渴望看一眼珠宝商蒂芙尼（Tiffany & Co）里璀璨闪耀的珠宝，参观萨克斯第五大道精品百货店（Saks Fifth Avenue）举办的节日展览。但沿着市中心的方向前进，去到昔日繁华的购物街区，那里的商店仍空无一人。

The global retail property business is having to adapt as consumers spend more online. Consolidation is in vogue. On December 12th two retail property companies, France’s Unibail-Rodamco and Australia’s Westfield, agreed to merge in a deal worth $24.7bn to form the world’s second-biggest owner of shopping malls by market value. Westfield earns about 70% of its revenues from property holdings in America.

因为消费者越来越多地依靠网上购物，全球零售地产业不得适应。强强联合正当时。12月12日，法国的尤尼百-洛当科集团（Unibail-Rodamco）和澳大利亚的西田集团（Westfield）这两家零售地产企业同意以247亿美元的价格合并，成为全球市值第二的购物商场集团。西田集团约70%的收入都来源于在美的地产投资。

In November, Brookfield Property Partners, another mall owner, bid $14.8bn for the 66% of GGP, a rival, that it did not already own. Two activist investors, Third Point and Elliott Management, took stakes in two others. They are among several investors to recognise that change is hastening, as many retail properties labour and others discover brighter prospects.

11月，另一大商场集团布鲁克菲尔德（Brookfield Property Partners）以148亿美元收购竞争对手，美国通用增长地产公司（GGP）66%的股权。两大激进的投资基金三点投资（Third Point）和美国埃利奥特资产管理公司（Elliott Management）拥有这两家公司的股权。与其他一些投资机构一样，这两家投资机构都发现行业变化迅速，同时，很多零售地产从业人员以及其他人士发现这个行业的更光明的前景。

Location, as ever, is key. In France and the Netherlands, as elsewhere, retail properties in smaller cities are struggling while those in big ones thrive. Well-known thoroughfares can attract luxury-goods firms that like having flagship stores to advertise their brand. One example is New Bond Street in London, which is booming. Rents jumped by 34% in the year to June, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a property-services firm. But even prominent streets in some places are experiencing a correction in prices. In Hong Kong rents in shopping hubs have slipped along with rates of visitors from mainland China.

一如往常，地理位置是关键。在法国和荷兰以及其他地方，零售地产业在小城市处于挣扎着求生状态，而在大城市却一片欣欣向荣。知名的购物大道能吸引那些喜欢通过开旗舰店来推广品牌的奢侈品企业。蓬勃发展的伦敦新邦德街就是一个例子。房地产服务公司戴德梁行（Cushman & Wakefield）的数据表明，今年年初至6月，该地租金暴涨了34%。但在一些地方，即使是著名的购物街也面临着价格价格调整。在香港，购物中心的租金随着大陆游客数量的减少而降低。

In America, which has about five times as much mall space per person as Britain, “there is a huge bifurcation”, says Todd Caruso of CBRE, a brokerage. Some areas and certain types of properties are expected to fare well and others to slump. Atlanta and Orlando are among the cities particularly saturated with stores, with only paltry levels of disposable income and retail sales, according to Green Street Advisors, a property research firm. These will probably see more shop closures. Enclosed malls are usually filled with department stores such as Macy’s and other clothes retailers that are all closing outlets. But strip malls, which have shops connected by a car park, often have a supermarket, so are less susceptible to e-commerce—most Americans still buy food in person, at least for now.

房地产经纪企业世邦魏理仕（CBRE） 的托德·卡鲁索（Todd Caruso）指出，在美国人均商场面积约为英国的5倍，“这是一个巨大的分歧。”一些地区和某些类型的房产预计会很好地发展，而其他地区则会陷入萧条。房地产研究公司绿街顾问（Green Street Advisors）指出，有些城市的商店处于饱和状态，这些商店的可支配收入和零售销售额少得微不足道，其中就包括美国亚特兰大市和奥多兰市。这些城市中越来越多的商店将倒闭关门。通常，封闭的商场开满了百货商店，比如梅西百货（Macy’s）和其他正关闭所有直销店的服装零售商。但在单排商业区，商店和停车场相联通，这里通常还坐落着一家超级市场，因此单排商业区不太容易受到电子商务的影响——至少目前来看，大多数美国人仍亲自去超市购买食物。

What will happen to retail properties as stores shut is on the minds of city authorities. Other types of companies may fill vacant space in larger cities. In October Hudson’s Bay, a retailer, said it would sell its Lord & Taylor department-store building on Fifth Avenue to WeWork, a shared-office firm, for $850m. Mall owners hope to find new tenants from service industries such as restaurants and gyms. Retailers such as Bonobos that once sold clothes only online are opening more shops.

随着店铺关门，城市管理者担心着零售地产的未来。其他类型的公司或许会填补大城市的空缺。10月，零售商哈德逊湾(Hudson’s Bay)称将以8.5亿美元的价格把第五大道的罗德与泰勒百货卖给公用办公场所公司WeWork。商场所有者希望从餐馆和健身房等服务业找到新的租户。像Bonobos（专做男装的美国电商公司）这样的零售商以前只在线上卖服装，但现在也开放了越来越多的线下实体店。

Bigger groups are better placed to spend on the best malls and sell others. Unibail-Rodamco’s plan for its American shopping malls is to “focus on improving them, ride out the storm and see where we go from there,” said the company’s chief financial officer this week. GGP in October announced an agreement to add flats to a mall in Seattle; Sandeep Mathrani, GGP’s boss, wants to make retail centres into “mini cities”. Other property companies face more of a challenge. CBL Properties, for instance, owns malls in smaller American cities that have less shopping traffic. CBL’s share price has fallen by more than 50% this year, making it harder to invest and turn around ailing spaces.

规模更大的集团公司有更大的优势，购买最好的商场，再转手卖给其他公司。本周，尤尼百-洛当科集团的首席财务官指出，该公司针对在美国的购物商场制定的计划是“专注于提升它们，渡过此次难关，再确定未来的发展方向”。10月，美国通用增长地产公司宣布其计划在西雅图一家商场上增盖公寓；该公司的老板桑迪普·马斯拉尼(Sandeep Mathrani)想将零售中心打造为“小型城市”。其他房地产公司面临着更大的挑战。例如，CBL联合资产公司（CBL Properties）在美国小城市拥有商场，那些地方购物商场的人气并不高。今年，CBL的股价跌幅超过50%，很难再有投入资金，以扭转这些经营不振的地方。

As the property market evolves, at least one type of investor can be unequivocally cheerful. Vacancies for industrial real estate, including e-commerce warehouses, are at their lowest rate in three decades. Prologis, the biggest owner globally of such property, has seen its share price jump by nearly 20% this year, while other property firms’ value has remained flat.

随着房地产市场的变化，至少有一类投资企业可以真正地欢呼雀跃。工业地产的空缺率，包括电子商务仓库，正处于30年以来的最低水平。作为全球工业地产最大的拥有者，美国普洛斯集团（Prologis）今年股价暴涨近20%。相比之下，其他房地产公司的股价保持水平不变。

编译：ColetteYu

审校：张愈研

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人