IT “WILL be an instrument for Venezuela’s economic stability and financial independence”, promises a white paper published by the country’s government last month. Venezuela, the issuer of the world’s least stable currency, proposes to issue its most trustworthy in the form of the petro, a “sovereign crypto asset backed by oil”. A private sale of this promising new asset started in February. The government plans to offer it to the public on March 20th.

委内瑞拉政府在上月公布了一份白皮书，期许“信息技术将成为委内瑞拉经济稳定和金融独立的工具”。委内瑞拉的货币发行是全球最不稳定的，不过，它计划发行“油币”——一种“以石油为基础的主权加密资产”，成为最可信的货币。这种前景向好的新资产将于二月进行了一次内部认购。委瑞内拉政府计划于3月20日首次向公众发售。

In one sense, the idea is as ludicrous as it sounds. Only the most credulous investors will trust a currency issued by Venezuela’s socialist regime, which has debased the bolívar, expropriated private enterprises, ridden roughshod over the country’s constitution and faces sanctions from the United States and the European Union.

从某种意义上说，这个想法听起来很荒谬。只有最容易上当的投资者才会相信委内瑞拉社会主义共和国发行的货币。委内瑞拉曾将其货币玻利瓦尔贬值，征用私人企业，践踏国家宪法，现在面临来自美国和欧盟的制裁。

But there is a germ of sense in what Venezuela is proposing. The country is suffering from hyperinflation, with prices doubling every month. By the end of 2018 economic output will be 40% lower than it was in 2013, according to the IMF. Venezuela needs the “economic stability” promised by the white paper. In theory, adoption of a crypto-currency, impervious to political whims, could provide that.

不过，委内瑞拉该项提议也不是全无道理。该国正饱受恶性通货膨胀的折磨，产品价格每月都会翻倍。据国际货币基金组织，到2018年底，该国经济产出较2013年将降低40%。委内瑞拉需要白皮书中许诺的经济稳定。理论上，采用一种不受政治支配的加密货币可以为经济提供稳定性。

Venezuela is not the only country seeking a cryptonic. Officials of Iran and Russia have said their governments might be interested in issuing crypto-currencies. On February 28th the Marshall Islands announced that it would issue one, called the sovereign, that it will accept as legal tender.

委内瑞拉不是唯一一个探索加密货币的国家。伊朗和俄罗斯的官员称，他们或许有兴趣发行加密货币。马绍尔群岛共和国2月28日宣布将发行一款名为“君主（sovereign）”的加密货币，作为法定货币。

What would-be cryptocracies have in common is an uncomfortable relationship with the dollar. The Marshall Islands is a dollarised economy; a second currency would give it at least the illusion of greater control over its money. Iran and Russia are subject to American sanctions.

加密货币的共同点大概是这些国家与美元关系不合。马绍尔群岛共和国是一个美元化的经济体，发行第二货币至少会给该国一种错觉，即他们对本国货币的控制增强了。另外，伊朗和俄罗斯正受制于美国的制裁。

For Venezuela, whose crypto plans are more advanced, the petro might simply be a way to evade American sanctions and raise cash it desperately needs. The United States has frozen the dollar assets of the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and 48 other Venezuelans. It has also barred companies with American operations from lending to some Venezuelan entities. Production of oil, almost the country’s sole source of foreign exchange, is declining because of lack of investment by PDVSA, the state-owned oil company. Venezuela’s foreign-exchange reserves are dwindling.

委内瑞拉的加密货币计划走在前列；对它来说，石油币可能只是躲避美国制裁和筹集急需资金的一种方法。美国冻结了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）及48位委内瑞拉人的美元资产，还封锁了美国企业向委内瑞拉实体经济放贷。石油产品几乎是委内瑞拉唯一的外汇来源，但由于委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）投资不足，石油产品的产量正在减少，外汇储备萎缩。

With the petro, Venezuela has something new to sell. It has “pre-mined” 100m petros, all that will ever be created, promises the white paper. State television showed outdated personal computers supposedly poised to mine the new currency. The “pre-sale” brought $5bn, Mr Maduro claimed, without providing evidence. At the government’s reference price for oil of $60 a barrel, the total value of the new currency is $6bn (so, if Mr Maduro is telling the truth, almost all the petros have been pre-sold). That is a useful sum, but less than half the amount the country must pay to service its foreign debt this year. The United States Treasury has warned that investors who buy petros with dollars may be violating its sanctions. That makes the currency less useful as a sanctions-buster.

有了“油币”，委内瑞拉就有了新的东西出售。上述白皮书承诺，该国“预先开采”了1亿石油币，而所有的“油币”都会创造出来。该国国家电视台称，过时的个人电脑也可用于开采新货币。尽管没有证据，但马杜罗声称，预售带来了50亿美元收入。根据该国政府的参考价，石油每桶60美元，新货币的总价值就是60亿美元（所以，如果马杜罗说的是实话，那么几乎所有的石油币都应该预售出去了），这笔钱很有用，不过，这还不到今年必须偿还的外债的一半。美国财政部警告购买石油币的美元投资者，因为石油币可能触犯美国制裁措施，这使该货币抵抗制裁的作用降低。

A more intriguing possibility is that the government views the petro as a substitute for the value-leaking bolívar. Other countries with high inflation, like Zimbabwe and Ecuador, have escaped by adopting the dollar, which would be anathema to Mr Maduro’s regime. In 1923 Germany defeated hyperinflation by issuing the Rentenmark, a currency backed by land. Brazil slew inflation in the early 1990s by replacing the cruzeiro with a new currency, the real, managed by a central bank that came to be seen as trustworthy. In theory, the petro could be Venezuela’s real.

一个更加有趣的可能性是，委内瑞拉政府视石油币为贬值的玻利瓦尔的替代物。其他高通胀国家，例如津巴布韦和厄瓜多尔，选择了流通美元，逃过通胀，而这却是对马杜罗政权的诅咒。1923年，德国为了抵御恶性通货膨胀，发行了地产抵押马克，即一种以土地做抵押的货币。在二十世纪九十年代，巴西也经历了一次通货膨胀，原因是他们用一种新货币用代替了原货币科鲁罗塞，一种有真正由中央银行发行的，被视为可信任的货币。理论上，石油币可能在委内瑞拉成为现实。

The government has announced that Venezuelans will be able to buy petros at authorised exchange houses and pay taxes with them, which could be the first step towards making the petro an everyday currency. Zimbabwe dollarised when citizens refused to accept payments in the local money. In Venezuela, which deprives people of access to dollars more effectively than did Zimbabwe, people could switch from the bolívar to the petro. That would increase demand for the new currency, and thus its price (and the government’s eventual profits).

委内瑞拉政府此前宣布，委内瑞拉人民将能够在授权交易大厅购买石油币和用石油币缴纳税款，这可能是使石油币成为日常流通货币的第一步。津巴布韦人民拒绝接受使用本国货币的支付，导致津巴布韦美元化。相比津巴布韦，委内瑞拉更为有效地剥夺了人们获得美元的机会，人们可从玻利瓦尔转向使用石油币。这将增加新货币需求量，从而使货币升值（最终会增加政府的收入）。

But the government has already undermined the trust that is supposedly built into the notion of an oil-backed crypto-currency. During the pre-sale it switched from the widely used Ethereum platform, which validates and keeps records of transactions in multiple crypto-currencies, to the New Economy Movement (NEM), a newcomer. The main crypto-currency on the NEM platform has a market capitalisation of just $4bn, compared with $61bn for Ethereum’s main currency. Because the platform is smaller, the network of computers used to validate transactions and enforce the rules on which a crypto-currency is based is more centralised. That makes it easier for one user, say, Venezuela’s government, to dominate the platform and undermine a crypto-currency.

但是，瑞委内拉政府的行为削弱了所谓的建立在石油抵押加密货币概念的信任。在“油币”预售期间，它从使用广泛的以太网平台（以太网平台上验证和保存了多个加密币种的交易记录）转移到了一个新平台——新经济运动（New Economy Movement）上。新经济运动平台上的主要加密货币市值仅40亿美元，而以太网平台上的主要货币市值达610亿美元。由于平台规模较小，用于验证交易和执行加密货币相关法规的计算机网络更为集中，这使得单个交易者，比如委内瑞拉政府，更容易主导交易平台，从而削弱加密货币。

The link to oil is no more convincing. The petro is not exchangeable for oil. It is merely backed by the government’s promise that it is backed by oil. That promise may not be honoured by the country’s repressed opposition, which may some day take power. Without decentralisation or a credible link to oil, the petro is just an unbacked currency issued by Venezuela’s discredited government. That’s what the bolívar is, too.

石油币与石油挂钩不再有说服力。石油币无法换成石油。它仅仅基于政府的一个承诺，说石油币以石油为抵押。反对派可能不会遵守这个承诺，尽管现在受到压制，但可能真有一天反对派会掌权。没有地方分权或与石油之间的可靠挂钩，石油币只是由不可靠的委内瑞拉政府发行一种无抵押货币，算是另一种玻利瓦尔。

编译：卢语欣

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.03.17）