OIL shaped the 20th century. In war, the French leader Georges Clemenceau said, petroleum was “as vital as blood”. In peace the oil business dominated stockmarkets, bankrolled despots and propped up the economies of entire countries. But the 21st century will see oil’s influence wane. Cheap natural gas, renewable energy, electric vehicles and co-ordinated efforts to tackle global warming together mean that the power source of choice will be electricity.

石油造就了二十世纪。法兰西第三共和国总理人领袖乔治·克列孟梭曾说过，在战争时期，“石油就是血液。”在和平年代，石油行业统治股市，为独裁者提供资金，支撑整个国家的经济。但是，步入二十一世纪，人们会见证石油影响力的衰退。廉价的天然气、可再生能源、电动汽车的兴起，以及应对全球变暖进行的协同努力，凡此种种，都意味着电力将会取代石油成为动力的来源。

That is welcome. The electricity era will diminish the clout of the $2trn oil trade, reduce the choke points that have made oil a source of global tension, put energy production into local hands and make power more accessible to the poor. It will also make the world cleaner and safer—reassuringly dull, even. The trouble is getting from here to there. Not just oil producers, but everyone else, too, may find the transition perilous.

这是一件令人欢欣鼓舞的事。如果人们进入电力时代，价值2万亿美元的石油交易将不再有从前的影响力，世界将会突破瓶颈，不再因石油引起局势紧张，能源的生产将不再受到地理位置的局限，获得能源对于穷人而言也更为容易。此外，电力主导的世界将会更为清洁、安全，人们不必每日忧心忡忡，甚至还会觉得有点太过沉闷。如何实现时代的交替是一个难题。除了石油生产者，我们每个人可能也会认为这种转变危险重重。

Oil and electricity are a study in contrasts (see our special report). Oil is a wonder fuel, packed with more energy by weight than coal and by volume than natural gas (both still the main sources of electricity). It is easy to ship, store and turn into myriad refined products, from petrol to plastics to pharmaceuticals. But it is found only in specific places favoured by geology. Its production is concentrated in a few hands, and its oligopolistic suppliers—from the Seven Sisters to OPEC and Russia—have consistently attempted to drip-feed it on to the market to keep prices high. Concentration and cartelisation make oil prone to crises and the governments of oil-rich states prone to corruption and abuse.

对于电和石油，需要进行对比研究。石油是燃料中的一个奇迹：在同等重量下，石油储存的能量多于煤；在同等体积下，又多于天然气（煤和天然气仍是发电的主要来源）。此外，石油易于运输、储存、以及转换成各种各样的炼油产品，比如汽油、塑料制品、制药等等。但是，石油的分布受到地理条件的限制，只储藏在特定地区。因此，石油的生产只集中于少数供应方手中，“七姊妹”（指的是在标准石油拆分后七家较大的石油企业）、石油输出国组织、俄罗斯等垄断了石油市场，它们一直试图控制石油市场的供应量，想把石油价格维持在一个较高的水平。石油供应集中化和垄断化的现象容易导致石油危机，也使得石油大国的政府容易滋生贪污腐败和权力滥用。

Different kettles of fuel

电：全然不同的燃料

Electricity is less user-friendly than oil. It is hard to store, it loses its oomph when shipped over long distances, and its transmission and distribution require hands-on regulation. But in every other way, it promises a more peaceful world.

电力相比之下不如石油——不易储存，不适于长途运输，而且电力的传输和配送也需要专门的监管。但另一方面，电力能带来一个更为和平的世界。

Electricity is hard to monopolise because it can be produced from numerous sources of fuel, from natural gas and nuclear to wind, solar, hydro and biomass. The more these replace coal and oil as fuel for generation, the cleaner it promises to be. Given the right weather conditions, it is abundant geographically, too. Anyone can produce electricity—from greener-than-thou Germans to energy-poor Kenyans.

要垄断电的供应很难，因为从天然气、核能、风能、太阳能、水能到生物燃料，有无数的燃料发电。这些燃料取代石油发电的程度越高，世界就会越清洁。如果天气条件合适，不论任何地区都能富有电能源。任何国家都能够生产电能，不管是追求环保的德国，还是能源匮乏的肯尼亚。

True, the technologies used to produce electricity from renewable resources, and the rare earths and minerals that some, including solar panels and wind turbines, rely on, could be subject to protectionism and trade wars. China, which produces 85% of the world’s rare earths, sharply tightened export quotas in 2010 with OPEC-like zeal. America and the European Union have slapped tariffs on Chinese solar-panel imports. Yet the vital substances involved in generating and storing electricity are not burned up like oil. Once a stock of them exists it can for the most part be recycled. And, even if today’s output is concentrated, for most materials the planet has undeveloped deposits or substitutes that can thwart a would-be monopolist. Rare earths, for example, are not rare—one of them, cerium, is almost as common as zinc.

确实，将可再生资源、稀土和矿产转换成电能的技术（比如太阳能板和风力涡轮机）可能会受制于保护主义和贸易战。生产全球85%稀土的中国在2010年严格限制对石油输出国组织的稀土出口配额。美国和欧盟对中国的太阳能板施加进口税。不过，与石油不同，参与生产、储存电能的关键物质还没有消耗殆尽。只要还有储量，它就能在很大程度上实现再循环。即便是今天重要能源集中在少数国家手中，对于大部分地球上还未开发的资源来说，都是有储量或是可替代的，是能击败未来的资源垄断国家。比如说，稀土资源并不稀少，铈就是其中一种，其储量几乎和锡一样庞大。

Electricity also rewards co-operation. Because renewables are intermittent, regional grids are needed to ship electricity from where it is plentiful to where it is not. This could replicate the pipeline politics that Russia engages in with its natural-gas shipments to Europe. More likely, as grids are interconnected so as to diversify supply, more interdependent countries will conclude that manipulating the market is self-defeating. After all, unlike gas, you cannot keep electricity in the ground.

电力也能促进合作。因为可再生能源分布不均，需要地区电网将电从储量充足的地区运送到匮乏的地区。这有可能会产生输油管政治，这一点可从苏联将其天然气运输到欧洲的过程中看出。不过，更有可能的是，由于电网互相联通以获得更多的供应渠道，更多的独立国家会认为操纵市场只会自取灭亡。毕竟，不同于石油，人们不可能把电力储存在地下。

An electric world is therefore desirable. But getting there will be hard, for two reasons. First, as rents dry up, authoritarian oil-dependent governments could collapse. Few will miss them, but their passing could cause social unrest and strife. Oil producers had a taste of what is to come when the price plunged in 2014-16, which led to deep, and unpopular, austerity measures. Saudi Arabia and Russia have temporarily stopped the rot by curtailing production and pushing oil prices higher, as part of an “OPEC+” agreement. They need high prices to buy time to wean their economies off oil. But the higher the oil price, the greater the incentive for energy-thirsty behemoths like China and India to invest in renewable-powered electrification to give themselves cheaper and more secure supplies. Should the producers’ alliance crumble in the face of a long-term decline in demand for oil, prices could once again tumble, this time for good.

因此，由电能主导的 51 35091 51 17892 0 0 7660 0 0:00:04 0:00:02 0:00:02 7659世界是美好的。但是想要实现这一梦想比较困难，原因有两个。第一，随着石油资源逐步耗尽，石油垄断国的政府可能会倒台。没有人会为对此感到惋惜，但是政府倒台会引发社会动乱与冲突。2014年至2016年的石油价格骤跌让石油供应国尝到了一点苦头。那场危机使得这些国家采取极度紧缩措施，却不为民众所接受。根据石油输出国组织协议中的规定，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯暂时停止了限产抬价的行为。他们需要高位的油价，以使其经济摆脱对于石油的过分依赖。但是油价越高，就越会刺激像中国和印度这样迫切需要能源的大国投资可再生能源发电，以得到更为便宜安全的能源供应。如果对石油的需要长期下降时，而那些石油大国再次出现崩溃，油价将就此一蹶不振。

That will lead to the second danger: the fallout for investors in oil assets. America’s frackers need only look at the country’s woebegone coalminers to catch a glimpse of their fate in a distant post-oil future. The International Energy Agency, a forecaster, reckons that, if action to limit global warming to below 2°C accelerates in coming years, $1trn of oil assets could be stranded, ie, rendered obsolete. If the transition is unexpectedly sudden, stockmarkets will be dangerously exposed.

第二个原因是油价的崩盘会导致石油资产的投资者会承受不良的后果。美国投资石油的人只需看看国内愁云惨淡的煤矿工人，就知道未来后石油时代到来的时候，等待他们的是什么。预测机构国际能源署认为如果未来，人们加快应对全球变暖问题，将气温升高限制在2摄氏度以内，那么价值一万亿的石油资产会搁浅，也就是，成为过去时。如果能源的更替没有任何预兆地突然发生，那么股票市场将会遭受严重的经济损失。

The tension is inescapable. On the one hand government policy should press forward with the transition as fast as it can. On the other, a rapid transition will cause upheaval. Expect the big consumers, especially India and China, to force the pace.

这种紧张局面是不可避免的。一方面，政府的政策应该加快推进电取代石油的速度。另一方面，转变过快又会带来动荡。希望能源消耗大国，尤其是印度和中国能够帮助加快这一进程。

编译：北外MTITIE

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.03.17）