GOVERNORS of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tend not to linger long in their post. Twenty-two people have headed the institution since 1914, compared with 16 at the Federal Reserve and 12 at the Bank of England. The last time a BoJ governor won a second term was 1961, when Japan’s economy was growing by over 11% and inflation was over 5%. As Richard Werner, the author of “Princes of the Yen”, a history of the central bank’s failures, points out, by tradition the job alternates every five years between a candidate backed by the finance ministry and a “true-born” BoJ insider.

日本银行行长通常不会在这个职位上呆太长时间。自1914年以来，日本央行行长换了22位，相比而言，美联储主席只有16位，英国央行行长有12位。日本银行行长上一次连任两届还是在1961年，那时日本经济增速超过10%，通货膨胀率超5%。《日元王子》（Princes of the Yen）一书记录了日本央行的失败史；作者理查德·维尔纳（Richard Werner）指出，按照惯例，央行行长一职每五年换一届，候选人由大藏省和“根正苗红的”央行内部人士推选出。

This tradition will be broken by the reappointment of Haruhiko Kuroda, who was nominated for a second term on February 16th. If he completes it, he will become the longest-serving governor in the BoJ’s history.

这一惯例将会由黑田东彦，因为他在2月16日获连任提名。若黑田东彦可以任满第二个五年，将成为日本央行史上任期最长的行长。

With luck that might be long enough for him to reach the central bank’s elusive inflation target of 2%, a goal set five years ago which he had hoped to meet by 2015. Although the BoJ has bought assets lustily with freshly created money, core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, was only 0.3% in the year to December. Mr Kuroda hopes that low unemployment will eventually force firms to raise wages and prices, which will in turn raise expectations of inflation in the future, reinforcing its momentum. The yen should also help. Although it has strengthened by about 4% this year on a trade-weighted basis, it remains much cheaper than it was in the summer of 2016.

如果黑田东彦的运气持续足够久，他就能完成央行五年前定下的要实现难以捉摸的2%通货膨胀目标，他原本希望能在2015年之前达成。不过，日本央行拼命印钞票购买资产，可是，截止至12月，除食物和能源外，通货膨胀仅为0.3%。黑田希望，低失业率会最终迫使企业加薪和涨价，而这两者能进而提高未来的通胀预期，推动通胀走势。日元也将在其中扮演一定角色。虽然今年日元贸易加权汇率走强，上涨了4%，却仍比2016年夏季低很多。

The window for success may close rather earlier than 2023, however. The government plans to raise Japan’s consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October next year. Mr Kuroda supported the last such increase in April 2014, arguing that Japan’s public finances needed help and Japan’s recovery could withstand the blow. That proved to be a mistake. The central bank’s monetary easing failed to prevent a sharp drop in demand, partly because Japan’s private sector proved surprisingly willing to hold, rather than spend, the extra money Mr Kuroda created. But that willingness to hold safe assets (whether money or sovereign bonds) means Japan’s enormous public debt remains surprisingly easy to sustain. The government may try to offset the next tax increase by raising social spending at the same time. But the increase still poses a threat to Japan’s economic momentum.

然而，要实现这一目标的机会可能会在2023年结束。日本政府计划在10月开始将消费税从8%调至10%。上一次消费税上调整还是在2014年4月，在黑田的支持下实现的，并认为需要帮助日本公共财政，一旦日本经济恢复能经得住考验。事实证明，这种做法是错的。日本央行的货币宽松政策没能制止需求激降，一个原因是日本私营企业居然很乐意紧握而不是消费黑田放出额外资金。不过，这些企业抓紧资金（货币或国债）的行为也说明日本巨额的公债极有可能还将持续。日本政府也许会下一次增税时尝试通过增加社会支出来对冲。不过，增税仍将威胁到日本的经济势头。

Mr Kuroda also worries that his policy of negative interest rates, announced in January 2016, may eventually turn counterproductive. The cut in rates raised the value of long-term assets held by Japan’s banks, improving their balance-sheets. But this one-time benefit must be set against an ongoing cost: negative rates hurt the margin that banks earn between the interest rates they charge their borrowers and the lower rates they pay for their funding. Since banks have not been able to pass on negative rates in full to their depositors, their funding costs have fallen less than their loan rates. This narrower margin could erode their financial standing and eventually inhibit their lending.

黑田还担心2016年1月发布的负利率政策可能最终将适得其反。降低利率会增加日本银行所持有资产的价值，改善其资产负债情况。不过，这种短暂收益必定要长期的付出才能取得：负利率降低了银行从借贷者身上赚取的利息，同时银行还要为其资金支付更高的利息。由于银行无法将负利率转移给存款人，正他们提供的资金会比贷款率下降得慢。在这一微薄利润的侵蚀下，银行的财务状况将每况日下，最终威胁到银行放贷。

There is, however, “no evidence that such a thing is happening in Japan”, Masazumi Wakatabe, an economist at Waseda University in Tokyo, told Bloomberg, a news agency, in December. The improvement in the economy has increased the creditworthiness of borrowers, obliging banks to write off fewer bad loans. And bank lending grew apace after negative rates were introduced in January 2016 (see chart), even as firms have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to issue more of their own bonds and commercial paper.

东京早稻田大学经济学家田部昌澄在12月接受彭博新闻社采访时说道：“没有证据表明日本正处于这样的状况之中”。经济的改善提升了贷款人的信用可靠程度，迫使银行减少不良贷款记录。自2016年1月提出负利率以来，银行贷款数量飞快增长，尽管许多企业利用低借贷成本来增加自身债券及商业票据的发行量。

Mr Wakatabe’s view that the BoJ should not “exit” too soon from easing seems to be shared in high places. He was also nominated on February 16th to serve alongside Mr Kuroda as one of his new deputy governors. The other deputy will be Masayoshi Amamiya, a central-bank insider known as “Mr BoJ”, who has worked to implement Mr Kuroda’s policies. Many think Mr Amamiya could eventually succeed Mr Kuroda as governor. He might even be the bank’s first boss since 1989 to inherit inflation above 2%. That would be a welcome break with recent tradition.

昌澄认为日本央行不应过早“退出”量宽政策，这一观点似乎广受高层人士认同。昌澄还在2月16日提名为黑田东彦的新副手——央行副行长。另一位副行长则是央行圈内人士雨宫正佳，人称“央行先生”，之前的工作是实施黑田东彦的政策。许多人认为雨宫正佳最终将接替黑田东彦成为下一任央行行长，甚至还有可能成为自1989年以来第一位接任时通货膨胀率超过2%的行长。按照最近的惯例，这一突破将会很受欢迎。

编译： Berry9721

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人