OFTEN promoted as a way of mitigating risk, futures contracts are frequently more like new ways of gambling. That was true of a close precursor to the instrument, introduced in the Netherlands in 1636, linked to the hot investment of the day—tulip bulbs. Likewise the world’s first two futures contracts linked to bitcoin. One launched on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on December 10th; the other was due to follow a week later on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

通常在宣传中，期货合约会是一种降低风险的方式，却更像是一种新的博弈方式。这种金融工具的前身便是如此，于1636年出现在荷兰，与当时的热门投资项目郁金香球茎有关。同样，全球最早的两种期货合约也与比特币有关。一个是于12月10日在芝加哥期权交易所（Chicago Board Options Exchange ，CBOE）推出；另一个将于一周后在芝加哥商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange ，CME）上市。

As bitcoin’s price has soared to new highs (see chart), holders may be happy to have a way to hedge their exposure at last. But for many, the contracts are just another way in. Both contracts settle in cash (ie, for the difference between the agreed price and the actual spot price). No exchange of bitcoin is needed; similarly, in the Dutch precedent, no bulbs were involved.

随着比特币价格飙升至新高（见图表），比特币持有人会愿意有一种对冲风险的方式。但对很多人来说，期货合同只是另一种购入比特币的方式。两种期货合同都以现金结算（即议定价格和实际现货价格之间的差额）。不需要交换比特币；同样，在之前的荷兰先例中，也不需要交换郁金香球茎。

Early trading on the CBOE certainly suggests a speculative market. In the first few hours, prices rose so quickly that trading twice had to be suspended. The contract has so far traded at a significant premium, of up to $2,000, to the spot price. This suggests there are more buyers than sellers—even though selling in the futures market offers a way to bet against bitcoin.

芝加哥期权交易所的早盘交易无疑说明了这是一个投机市场。在开盘最初几个小时里，比特币期货价格飞涨，造成交易两次停盘。截至目前，该期货合同的现货价格已高达2000美元。这种情况表明，买家比卖家多——不过，在期货市场上，卖出是一种押注比特币的方式。

It may be that investors are willing to pay some premium to evade the mounting hassle entailed in buying bitcoin. In recent days, many bitcoin exchanges have seen systems failures. Also, prices have differed between exchanges by as much as 25%. And hackers stole bitcoin worth $64m (at the time) from a Slovenian exchange.

原因可能是投资者愿意支付一定的溢价来规避购买比特币所带来的日益增加的麻烦。近几天，许多比特币交易所都出现了系统故障。此外，各交易所之间的价差高达25%。一些黑客从斯洛文尼亚的一个交易所窃取了价值6400万美元（实时价格）的比特币。

But the futures contracts have problems of their own. The CBOE’s price is set by an auction on just one modestly sized bitcoin exchange, Gemini. The CME’s price, in contrast, will be based on an index compiled from data from four exchanges. The collateral, or “margin”, required for clearing the contracts highlights their riskiness. The CBOE contract requires 44%; the CME first announced it would charge 35%, but then revised the figure to 47%. On most futures, margins are around 5-15%.

不过，期货合约本身也存在问题。芝加哥期权交易所的价格仅由一家小型比特币交易所双子（Gemini）的拍卖决定。相比之下，芝加哥商品交易所的价格则将基于从四家交易所的数据汇编而成的指数。清算这些期货合约所需的抵押品（或称“保证金”）凸显了期货合约的风险。芝加哥期权交易所的期货合同要求占比是44%：芝加哥商品交易所首次宣布要求35%，但随后将这一数字修正为47%。在大多数期货交易中，利润率均在5 - 15%左右。

Thomas Peterffy, the head of Interactive Brokers, a large brokerage, warns that there could be a risk to clearing-houses themselves. Bitcoin, he points out, “can reach any price”. If bitcoin futures are taken up in large numbers, bitcoin prices rise far enough and end-clients are not able to put up more margin, brokers will be on the hook; a big enough rally could mean small brokers run out of money. This would leave the clearing-house responsible for unwinding the contracts, a difficult task if the margin for bitcoin contracts is mixed with that from other contracts, as now. Mr Peterffy thinks exchanges need to clear bitcoin futures in a separate legal entity.

大型经纪公司交互经纪商（Interactive Brokers）的负责人托马斯·彼得菲（Thomas Peterffy）警告称，交易所自身可能存在风险。他指出，比特币“的价格随意性强”。如果比特币的期货价格大幅上升，幅度过大时，终端客户也无法提供更多的保证金，经纪商就会陷入困境；由此产生的大反弹可能足以让小型经纪商的资金告罄。这将使交易所负责解除期货合同，如果比特币合约的保证金与其他合约的合约存在混合，情况将更加复杂。彼得菲认为，交易所需要在一个单独的法律实体中清除比特币期货。

Others share his concerns. In a rare open letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), America’s futures regulator, the Futures Industry Association (FIA), a global trade body, criticised the exchanges’ use of a self-certification process for the new contracts. It argued that this did not leave room for a debate about appropriate safeguards and whether separate clearing was needed. Ed Tilly, boss of the CBOE, says accusing his firm of sneaking in the new contract unnoticed is unfair. It has been discussing bitcoin with the CFTC for months (as has the CME).

其他人也有同样的担忧。在，全球贸易机构美国期货业协会（Futures Industry Association ，FIA）罕见地向美国期货监管机构商品期货交易委员会（Commodity Futures Trading Commission ，CFTC）提交的一封公开信中，批评了这两家交易所对新期货合约进行的自我认证。它认为，这并没有留出空间来讨论适当的保障措施以及是否需要单独的清算。芝加哥期权交易所的负责人埃德·提利（Ed Tilly）称，指责他的机构偷偷增加了新合同，不公平。数月来，该机构一直在与商品期货交易委员会讨论比特币（芝加哥商品交易所也一样）。

Despite the unease, many brokers are helping clients use the new contracts. Optimists hope that bitcoin futures will become well-established and even make underlying markets more robust by dampening volatility. Pessimists recall that the tulip-futures innovation of 1636 did not stop the tulip-bulb crash of 1637.

许多经纪人尽管感到不安，也在帮助客户使用新的期货合约。乐观人士认为，比特币的期货将大有可为，甚至可以通过抑制市场波动来增强潜在市场的活力。悲观人士则联想到，1636年郁金香期货的创新并没能阻止1637年郁金香球茎交易的崩溃。

编译：张思琦

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2017.12.16）